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Covid
#27

Well in my post I was addressing the confounding possibility you mentioned. The issue pertaining to whether that x% is real is under-reporting in VAERS. This has been studied and found to be a factor of ten to a hundred.

In the present context it isn’t hard to see why there would be underreporting - it take at least 20 mins to fill out a VAERS report. (They are usually filled out by medical personnel). A hard-pressed doctor could see two patients and a nurse could give two vaccinations in that time. There is much bigger pressure than usual on medics not to raise vaccine concerns. Even telling a relative that you think it was likely the vaccine gets a Dr into trouble. Of course most doctors believe vaccine reactions are rare. And the CDC have been weeding the database.

VAERS IS the system - it wasn’t deigned to bring down dangerous vaccines but to give the CDC credibility while possibly flagging up particular issues with the data, like all the reports being within a particular timeframe. The reduction in the numbers damps down public disquiet.

But they never reckoned on a ‘signal’ like this. Since the rollout the rate of serious covid vaccine reactions, and deaths, in VAERS immediately shot to something like 20-100 times the rate of all previous vaccines.

If this can be ignored the system lacks any genuine purpose other than to damp down disquiet.

“I remember precisely zero hospital icus overwhelmed by huge and rising numbers of vaccine victims. I don’t remember ambulances queuing up outside morgues with vaccine deaths etc. You get my point. The latest estimates that I’ve seen are that 10-20 million people died from covid, globally. I highly doubt that far more than that have died from the vaccine.”

But there are only 6m claimed even on Worldometer. You are aware of false positives with PCR at 40 cycles? I can’t compare real data with exaggerations - that would mean I’d have to find what, 20-40 million vaccine deaths to ‘beat’ what is likely about 2-3m covid deaths.

Nevertheless, that’s what some well-placed, top medics are indicating, looking at the medical signals. For example Dr Ryan Cole (a board-certified pathologist with a license in twelve state) has shown how the jab effects can be measured in the blood. He predicts a tsunami of thrombotic, cardio events but also weakened immune systems (that he can directly prove). He has seen order of magnitude increase in particular cancers and sees those as predictable from the weakening of the immune system.

Cheers

#28

Hi again PP. Just some thoughts on the thoughts. I’ve got to go out (to try to catch covid while it’s weak :laughing:), sorry if this is ending up a bit rushed…

Dr Ryan Cole was warning of this cancer risk in 2021 - as indeed was one @RhisiartGwilym

Now his forecasts are being supported by pathology.
There was an excellent conference on Vaccine Causation, organised by the World Council for Health.

“The inaugural Understanding Vaccine Causation Conference, convened by World Council for Health Steering Committee Member, Shabnam Palesa Mohamed, took place on Feb. 5, 2022. The WCH Law and Activism Committee brought together legal practitioners, doctors, scientists, and jab victim data and advocacy groups to explore a key question: How are jab adverse events proved?”

One of the speakers was Dr Cole who indicated how vaccine damage can be seen from the blood parameters.

Another speaker was Dr Arne Burkhardt (who we know from:

Link, Pathologist Dr Arne Burkhardt and Dr Sucharit Bhakdi homing in on vaccine deaths?) who gave a very informative presentation showing how the vaccine harm was picked up by autopsy:

Burkhardt’s graphic (and riveting) presentation was like watching disease live. It left no doubt that the vaccines are killing people - as they killed those patients. The vaccine were ‘probable cause’ in at least 12 of the 15 cases he has autopsied after relatives have referred to him for a second opinion.

Both Burkhardt and Cole have been flagged here before. I think this highlights an issue - to form a complete picture, such ‘dots’ have to be joined or factored in.

The other issue is the onus you seem to have placed - prove the vaccines are killing more than Covid. I realize this is something people are actually saying - but proving this from official data can’t be the line that we are arguing across. You don’t acknowledge all the political forces that are stretching covid deaths while suppressing vaccine deaths.

Early treatment is another ‘dot’ (a very big one admittedly) - you acknowledge its suppression, but doesn’t this mean that a big majority of covid deaths are essentially politically/medically induced deaths?
Basically, if you remove all those who would have been saved by early interventions, then ‘proving’ or arguing vaccines killed more people than covid would be straightforward.

I think when people make the claim that vaccines are killing more than covid there are two strands to it. One is the analyses by people like Jesica Rose and Steve Kirsch (who can’t find anyone senior in medicine who will debate him on vaccine deaths vs covid deaths, even for a million pounds) that purports to how this. The other is the cacophany of horror stories, medical signals and political outrages (and official data lies and manipulations) that forms the vaccine news outside the mainstream. They are partly reflecting to the whole picture, anticipating that you will have some of these ‘dots’ in mind!
Hope I’m shedding some light…
Cheers

#29

Here’s my reality: I refuse to call it a ‘pandemic’. Because

  1. many deaths were caused because govts intentionally prevented early treatment
  2. many deaths were caused by lockdowns, which caused massive stress, and stress is the number one factor of reduced immunity, and reduced immunity is a major killer of the elderly
  3. the statistics concerning deaths and serious illness have been shown to be fraudulent
  4. the PCR tests have been shown to be fraudulent used to maximize ‘cases’.

If we had never been told there was a ‘pandemic’, and if there had been no lockdowns, no PCR mass testing, and if people had been treated ‘normally’ with the best protocols, would we have noticed anything? I say NO absolutely not.

Concerning the Vaxx, my reality is that it makes people sick and dead at a much higher rate that covid, and this fact is being ruthlessly suppressed.

Why trust any of the ‘science’ at this point that purports to prove covid was or is a pandemic? Would you trust Boeing to tell you about whether more weapons are needed? Would you trust Phillip Morris if they said tobacco was not harmful? Remember how BigTobacco manipulated science and doctors and politicians? And suddenly we’re supposed to put our faith in the science underwritten by BigPharma criminals?

No pandemic, profits, yes. Not even a vaxx, a gene therapy injection, yes, whose effect is still not known, and cannot be known. They concocted that cell manipulation deadly soup in a matter of months, and forced it on millions if not billions, only a matter of months ago, so it’s IMPOSSIBLE to know how deadly it is at this point.

3 Likes
#30

Hi bwana

Quick points to both your messages.

  • Yes, under-reporting in VAERS, I agree.
  • The data in VAERS etc are hopefelly being further investigated. Evidence for that is the myocarditis story that was a tiny effect, discovered, investigated and acted upon (within the EU, though. Maybe america is much worse)
  • Number of global covid deaths in worldometer is a certain (large) underestimate in my view, but thats a different topic
  • vaccine and cancer rates: very interesting, I’ll definitely look through. It’s great that there are doctors out there looking into this. Id like someone to look at the same thing in covid survivors. Im sure the clotting resulting from.the disease has similar effects. Scary
  • @RhisiartGwilym predicting a rise in cancers: He’s a canny one for sure, and it’s not the first time he’s been right! I just disagree with him about covid stats
  • early treatment - 100% agree. This entire thing was preventable.
  • I’m generally not a huge fan of Steve Kirsch, but id consider debating him for 1 million! I wonder if you get the million for just showing up, or if you somehow have to “win”… joking aside, however, this just reminds me of various climate denier stunts (and James Randi). Id be surprised if anyone took that up. Doesnt mean hes wrong though…
  • the conference on vaccine caused injury: excellent. I will absolutely check that out. This is the kind of thing that could fit into an ongoing evidence thread.

So, yes, overall lots of light, good data for chewing on. Thanks.

On the subject of correlation or even sampling, my view remains that you cannot simply draw conclusions from VAERS. It’s a raw dataset on which (1) careful analysis should be performed, and (2) from which statistical models can be extracted that will ultimately show whether the vaccine is causing more deaths than average. We cant skip those two steps and just do a raw count and jump straight to the conclusion. Underreporting only makes that problem more tricky from a mathematical POV.

So far I’ve seen lots of people making claims. Some are well qualified and some less so. This all needs good, robust, statstical analysis. If you ask me whether I think some people get serious adverse effects or even die from a vaccine reaction, I would say yes. The question is how many people are we talking about?

A huge spike in mortality (“more than from covid”) would be visible. Its not. Not anywhere that I’ve been looking, anyway. I tried to look for excess mortality spikes in the UK and found none. I dont see any in other European countries either (where the data is far better quality than the US).

So, are some people dying? Most likely. Are more dying than died from covid? Almost certainly not.

Cheers
PP

PS, I have noticed that I have an OCD tendency to get caught in the weeds of statistical arguments. I think that is rarely interesting to literally anyone else here. If you’d like to continue chatting about correlation, sampling, estimates of covid deaths and excess mortality, maybe we chat by email? Unless others are actually interested in these details, of course…

2 Likes
#31

P, don’t leave out of these cautious thoughts the additional one: that it’s now possible to resurrect and make quite persuasively the argument that it’s not proven conclusively that viruses exist at all. That particular awkward possibility doesn’t look to me as if it’s going to lie down again any time soon, having been re-awakened by the covid thing. (Bet the ‘pandemic’ story pushers didn’t foresee that possibility! :slight_smile: )

You’re right about the detailed analysis of stat technicalities. That always leaves me - for one - out. I’m capable of such advanced numeracy; but these days, not much convinced that it’s worth the time. Surfing the larger trends, and giving intuition freedom to operate right alongside nitty-gritty logic, as an equal partner in the constant search for what are only ever going to be, at best, odds-on bets, never rabid certainties… That just seems a better way to go.

But, since that kind of detailed discussion tends to get simply chased out from places like - for example - the Hulk, surely we should be open to house it here at 5F; because someone should. Readers can always choose - like me - whether to dive into it or not.

1 Like
#32

Hi PP thanks for the response, more agreement than disagreement.
On the latter :slight_smile: :

  • The data in VAERS etc are hopefelly being further investigated. Evidence for that is the myocarditis story that was a tiny effect, discovered, investigated and acted upon (within the EU, though. Maybe america is much worse)

I think that’s very hopeful. Only the threat to the vaccine is investigated. The CDC told VAERS they only started looking at the data in April 2021.
It’s not a tiny effect relative to covid. If you’re more likely to get myocarditis from the vaccine than by getting covid. When covid is less dangerous - like now with Omicron, or for under 40s, anytime - the vaccine becomes almost a no-win gamble, based on myocarditis alone.

  • Number of global covid deaths in worldometer is a certain (large) underestimate in my view, but thats a different topic

What data are you looking at? I looked at Worldometer, the WHO and Statista.

  • vaccine and cancer rates: very interesting, I’ll definitely look through. It’s great that there are doctors out there looking into this. Id like someone to look at the same thing in covid survivors. Im sure the clotting resulting from.the disease has similar effects. Scary

Good point. There seem to be parallels between vaccine effects and covid effects. From memory, the FLCCC seem to advise the same covid treatments for long covid as well. The spike protein inherent in both could account for much of this. The vaccines’ spike proteins may be much longer lasting (people like Zelenko said this) and other researchers have indicated that the SP is more mobile as well whereas covid tends to stay localised. Their smaller which is probably bad.
But I don’t have the gen on this - could do with an honest scientific review, but I think there might be a backlash against acknowledging that the vaccines give you ‘a bit of covid’ after all, especiallly if it looks like more than a bit!

  • I’m generally not a huge fan of Steve Kirsch, but id consider debating him for 1 million! I wonder if you get the million for just showing up, or if you somehow have to “win”… joking aside, however, this just reminds me of various climate denier stunts (and James Randi). Id be surprised if anyone took that up. Doesnt mean hes wrong though…

Jessica Rose then? On Kirch, I think the challenge was to prove his figures were wrong by a factor of three or more. But I think his figures were severe - eg five times as many deaths caused by vaccines as there are covid deaths avoided by them - so there is scope if you doubt them.
It’s not a comparable stunt. Kirsch was making plenty of money before covid, now he’s spending it on covid (he’s funded covid studies and other medical projects) and all his time as well. He’s a serious player. He’s no McCullough, but these top guys take him seriously.

"On the subject of correlation or even sampling, my view remains that you cannot simply draw conclusions from VAERS. It’s a raw dataset on which (1) careful analysis should be performed, and (2) from which statistical models can be extracted that will ultimately show whether the vaccine is causing more deaths than average. We cant skip those two steps and just do a raw count and jump straight to the conclusion. Underreporting only makes that problem more tricky from a mathematical POV.

So far I’ve seen lots of people making claims. Some are well qualified and some less so. This all needs good, robust, statstical analysis. If you ask me whether I think some people get serious adverse effects or even die from a vaccine reaction, I would say yes. The question is how many people are we talking about?"

Well what about your claims. How is it that you accept all the claims about covid deaths, even multiplying the official total by 2-3. Why do these not need “careful analysis” and “good, robust, statstical analysis”

But on Vaers, what analysis do you need when a new vaccine appears and there are immediately HUGE spikes in several serious adverse events (myocarditis, pulmonary embolisms, pericarditis), all more serious than Covid. These were spikes of 100,1000 times the previous rates associated with vaccines. And they persisted all year so weren’t down to topicality. The spike in vaccine deaths are similar.

“A huge spike in mortality (“more than from covid”) would be visible. Its not. Not anywhere that I’ve been looking, anyway. I tried to look for excess mortality spikes in the UK and found none. I dont see any in other European countries either (where the data is far better quality than the US).”

But the spikes in illnesses are visible. I do fear you are looking in such a way as not to see. If you can ascertain the deaths you should be wary of statistically (‘robustly’) processing them out of view.

“So, are some people dying? Most likely. Are more dying than died from covid? Almost certainly not.”

Only ‘most likely’? Pathologist Arne Burkhardt caught it as if it were live. All the athlete deaths - well you have a ready made experiment there, thanks to the good old mandates in sports.
40% rise in insurance claims? More from such sources in Kirsch’s ‘top 50’ as posted by. @RhisiartGwilym, Steve Kirsch: "The 'safe and effective' narrative is falling apart - #3 by Evvy_dense.
Peter Fenton’s analysis indicated why you need to be wary of official data.
Many of these issues have been posted here.

“PS, I have noticed that I have an OCD tendency to get caught in the weeds of statistical arguments. I think that is rarely interesting to literally anyone else here. If you’d like to continue chatting about correlation, sampling, estimates of covid deaths and excess mortality, maybe we chat by email? Unless others are actually interested in these details, of course…”

Edit: We could discuss the gory details of some things if you like :slightly_smiling_face:

Cheers
ED

2 Likes
#33

Completely agree. My mother once told me, “Intelligence is the ability to make connections”. I was reminded of this in a recent Robert Malone interview where he said exactly that about himself. So yes, the nitty gritty analysis (if done objectively) is important, but many can see the big picture without it!

2 Likes
#34

And where will those statistics originate if they are suppressed from key documents? And if those statistics are suppressed on what basis can good robust statistical analysis be done? And if the analysis cannot be done what then is the basis of your argument?

For example (one of many)

#35

The basic conundrum - still unanswered by anyone here - is: HOW do you tell which stats/‘facts’/tests are authentic and un-nobbled? HOW do you KNOW?

The short answer for any appropriately-sceptical person is simple as well as short: No-one knows with any justified certainty, because we are living through a time of universal corruption.

One hundred percent open-minded scepticism is the only rational stance to take. And in that awkward situation, intuitive direct knowledge-getting is the other - better - option, to set against currently-disabled rationality.

Be very ware, though: real intuitive information sifting - as taught, for example, in Tom Campbell’s practical seminars, and by others too - is a delicately tricky skill. Wishful thinking, instant rationalising interpretation, and ego, are all waiting constantly to trip us up.

It takes a fair bit of practice until the subtle signals can be discerned which enable us to sort the wheat from the chaff. But it can be done - with practice. Just be cautious.

#36

This suggests that those connections are being made

#37

Any idea what the figures mean?

#38

Hi Everyman

Well, the VAERS and yellow card systems are not suppressed, and I believe that there are teams looking through that data. AFAIK its only the vaccine trial data that is suppressed, no? Presumably with enough public pressure that could be opened up too.

Well, if the analysis cannot be done then we cannot reach a meaningful conclusion. You can say what you think, I can say what I think and we might be right or we might be wrong…

As a great song says - there’s no shortcuts on this road.

Cheers
PP

1 Like
#39

Hi ED

A few quick points and a few more later

  • myocarditis: I remember reading that a young person was 6x more likely to get myocarditis from covid than the vaccine. Ill have to look that up again. Also I remember that we are inly talking about somethibg likr 3/4 cases per 100,000 in the highest risk groups (It’s been a while since ive looked at those numbers) - hence small effect

  • there were a couple of independent studies of death reports from around the globe that tried to capture what proportion of covid deaths were being reported. In many countries (outside Europe/US) the capture rate was very low. This chimes with my own experience in TZ where I know that a good number of people died from covid and none were recorded.

You should never believe my claims! :wink: but I do try and base my understanding on published, peer reviewed data

Are there huge spikes? Above the normal background level?

The quibble I had was with the quote “many more people are dying from the vaccine than covid”. I dont think so.

Sorry for the rushed fornat. Ill swing by later to tidy up!

Cheers
PP

2 Likes
#40

Those are the states of the USA with numbers and percentages of under 5s who have had a Covid injection. As per the title at the top of the chart. I posted it without any further details, but merely as a response to Pat’s words "intelligence is the ability to make connections”. The low uptake suggests to me that parents of that age group are responding intelligently to what they are seeing all around them.

Here’s the source, but bear in mind this blogger’s schtick is ridicule rather than statistical analysis.

Where the bad cat got the chart from I couldn’t say

#41

Thanks PP - don’t worry about the rushed format, I’m going to be worse!

I accept what you are saying about undercounting in the developing world. I expect these countries are being deprived of vaccines anyway - until they can jolly well stump up for them full whack - so probably doesn’t change the essence!?

PP: “myocarditis: I remember reading that a young person was 6x more likely to get myocarditis from covid than the vaccine. Ill have to look that up again. Also I remember that we are inly talking about somethibg likr 3/4 cases per 100,000 in the highest risk groups (It’s been a while since ive looked at those numbers) - hence small effect”

That may be an old figure, when myocarditis was in denial. In any case it’s misleading because it applies to people who actually have covid.

There’s a study that told us, I’m sure there have been others.

5/7/22 A study reported in JAMA Cardiology on April 20 carries the eye-popping title of: “SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination and Myocarditis in a Nordic Cohort Study of 23 Million Residents.”

" Specifically, among young men receiving two doses of the same vaccine, between four and seven excess myocarditis and pericarditis events occurred in 28 days per 100,000 vaccinees after the second dose of the Pfizer vaccine, and between nine and 28 excess myocarditis and pericarditis events occurred per 100,000 vaccinees after the second dose of the Moderna vaccine."

Risk increases with dose. Important.

Study here, SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination and Myocarditis in a Nordic Cohort Study of 23 Million Residents - PubMed

Yes I acknowledged you were replying to a claim about more people dying from the vaccine than covid. But we are allowed to use our brains (for the time being :confused: ). So I would like to know what you make of this comparison.

“Are there huge spikes? Above the normal background level?”

Well probably, if you allow for the underreporting. The sampling estimate was 10-100 times. I was avoiding ‘normal background level’ (because due to VAERS underreporting, that’s a bias that I’m sure you would MUCH rather commit to enthusiastically embracing the next prime minister, than knowingly benefit from in your argument :slight_smile: ) but I’ll look at that in a minute.

The HUGE (how do you get a bigger font dammit :slight_smile: ) spike I mentioned actually referred to the jump in the adverse event reports for vaccines. I simply compared the AERs of Covid-19 vaccines to AERs of other vaccines in the same year (2021). The other vaccines combined, on a very quick look, compare in numbers to the covid jabs, if they don’t actually outnumber them. Without knowing actual vaccine totals, it can only be a rough comparison but isn’t unfair to the covid jabs.

So again:

“But on Vaers, what analysis do you need when a new vaccine appears and there are immediately HUGE spikes in several serious adverse events (myocarditis, pulmonary embolisms, pericarditis), all more serious than Covid. These were spikes of 100,1000 times the previous rates associated with vaccines. And they persisted all year so weren’t down to topicality. The spike in vaccine deaths are similar”

Myocarditis reported in VAERS was 80 times higher for covid vaccines than all other vaccine combined, and as I say I think that’s a comparable number of jabs. For Pulmonary embolisms it was 200 times higher. There’s a host of these comparisons.

Even if we don’t have the comparison against ‘background rates’ - these can vary quite a bit depending on the locations, and when the figures were gathered - would you accept this requires explanation?

But on comparison vs background rates, I do have some thumbnail figures, offered with caveat:

" Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is the most common form of cardiomyopathy and cause of cardiac transplantation in children.

…The annual incidence of DCM in children younger than 18 years was 0.57 cases per 100,000 per year overall. The annual incidence was higher in boys than in girls (0.66 vs 0.47 cases per 100,000; P<.001), in blacks than in whites (0.98 vs 0.46 cases per 100,000; P<.001), and in infants (<1 year) than in children (4.40 vs 0.34 cases per 100,000; P<.001)" (2006, US+C, Incidence, causes, and outcomes of dilated cardiomyopathy in children - PubMed)

“0.9 per 100,000 children in 2016”, US again Trends in Acute Myocarditis Related Pediatric Hospitalizations in the United States, 2007-2016 - PubMed

“an annual incidence of 1.24 per 100,000 children younger than 10 years of age”, (Australia 2003) The epidemiology of childhood cardiomyopathy in Australia - PubMed

So that annual incidence of myocarditis for the U18 population - between 0.6 and 1.2 per 100,000?

Call it 0.9 per 100,000.

How many jabbed are there in the under 18 range? A guess: 335m US population, maybe 85m under-18? I’m looking only at 2021 for the Vaers data.

Without looking them up maybe half of the older kids were vaxed in 2021? Half of the older half…maybe 21 million? (My statistical robustness is going out the window here :slight_smile: )

That’s our 2021 US jabbed population, according to …me. 21 million kids.

…according to the to the estimates, 0.9 per 100,000 of whom would normally get myocarditis in a year. ie about 0.9 x 21 times a million divided by 100,000 = about 189.

This is to be compared to the Vaers. Vaers gives us this table:

image
image1203×537 134 KB

According to the Table there were 451 Myocarditis reports from the covid-19 jabs in 2021.

That’s more than double my estimate of 189. Now that 189 could be an undercount, probably is maybe a factor of two.

But it doesn’t take into account the much greater underreporting in Vaers.

Cheers

1 Like
#42

Here’s how I’d expect to get a bigger typeface.

I’ll only know if it works by posting this though :wink:

Here's how I'd expect to get a <big>bigger</big> typeface.
1 Like
#44

Thanks
There’ll be no STOPPING me now

Edit. It worked.
How do people KNOW these things.

#45

I learned web design the long way, comes in very handy when apps like Dreamweaver or SharePoint bugger up the coding. This forum allows a subset of the HTML tags. Here is an H1

heading

#46

Hi ED

Thanks for the links. Some thoughts.

  • mycarditis: so according to JAMA 4-7/100,000 for Pfizer and 8-20/100,000 for moderna.

Thats not a million miles off my recollection (for pfizer anyway) and still a relatively small effect that was successfully captured. This suggests to me that if the vaccine was responsible (overall) for an increase in mortality of more than 4/100,000 that fact would have been similarly captured by the good folks publishing at JAMA.

I still seem to remember that the risk was much higher from getting the disease than from getting the vaccine. I’ll look into it

The comparison between this vaccine and another (non covid) vaccine is not that compelling to me. Its apples to oranges. I really think that the comparison should be to rates of illness after vaccination compared to background rates of illness.

Which you also do :smile:

I think that there is a good point in your back of the envelope numbers on myocarditis in pre and post vaccinated populations. I would like this to be investigated in more detail, but the essence of what you’re saying here could well be correct.

I linked to a study here on 5F (that ive still not read unfortunately) analysing serious adverse events resulting from vaccination. It looks like a serious effort to try and do the sort of thing you’re doing here.

Anyway. Add all that up, and I think that there are probably a good number of adverse reactions to the vaccine.

But I still cannot see any way that the vaccinations have killed more people than died from covid

Cheers

#47

But, but, but according to the various reporting systems the ‘vaccines’ are killing people at a truly shocking rate - and given that those reporting systems notoriously under-report, heaven knows what the real numbers are. And then there’s the astounding numbers of people damaged by the myriad of known harms caused by these experimental jabs. It’s openly acknowledged that the jabs do not prevent spread and infection - - and it seems certain that no robust case can be made for the speculative notion of a reduced severity of infection.

The experiment should never have been rolled-out in the first place - there never was any data on short/med/long-term effects - given the horrific evidence of the short-term effects, Clapton knows what the long-term may see.

I’m amazed that anybody can still defend the experiment, or seek to downplay the disaster it has assuredly been.