Not adhom PP - I’ve seen the data you say makes it plain; in my view I have the strongest possible indication that this is not rational - as the evidence people have brought is not included in your data, and you are looking from a vantage point that is suitable for missing detail. As I pointed out ten thousand deaths could easily be invisible. There could be a lot more deaths caused by the vaccine if it is simultaneously stopping covid deaths. You seem not to accept that these two numbers could add together.
With your airy dismissal of evidence that you are ignoring (and references to people who you say will ignore all evidence) is it reasonable to expect that no-one will look closely at the totality of what you yourself are saying? That’s what debate is all about, at least the kind that tries to get at the truth 
Cheers
So let’s hold off on talk of rational and irrational, ok? I’ll accept you have a rational point of view and you could do me the same courtesy.
False. 10K deaths over the 3 or 4 months of vaccine rollout would be easily visible. As it is for covid.
Not exactly… All deaths, including those used as evidence for vaccine deaths are included in the data. The fact that vaccine deaths are invisible is interesting to me. What is not included in my chart is speculation about what might be causing the deaths. First there have to be deaths, then we can worry about the cause. If there are not a great number of new deaths, then there is nothing to explain.
Not sure I understand this. Perhaps you could actually show me quantitatively with actual data what you mean?
That’s not the point I was making at all. I was saying this:
n(A) = n(A ∪ B) - n(B) + n(A ∩ B)
You just kept ignoring the third term on the right, which is mathematically incorrect.
Finally on the point of vaccines saving lives - they specifically save the lives of people with Covid. Vaccines don’t save people who don’t die from Covid. The reason you can’t see that very clearly on the graph above is that I didn’t include Covid cases - it was busy enough already.
But…
Look at what happens to Covid specific deaths in the chart I posted. They almost disappear. That is the work of the vaccine. That is why after spring 2021, the vaccine is uncorrelated with all cause mortality - because people are not dying of the disease that is affected by the vaccine. No correlation is exactly what you would expect.
As I have already explained to you, deaths caused by vaccine are different. They are adding in a new cause of death, not removing one. They should be easily visible on the chart above, and there should be a positive correlation with all cause mortality. The exact opposite of the case above.
That is why the correlations between vaccines and covid vs all cause mortality mean very different things. Again, I feel like this explanation is clear. If you still don’t get it, then we’ll have to wait. I prob won’t be able to get back online properly until this evening or tomorrow now.
As I have asked several times now - where are the vaccine deaths hiding? Where is the correlation? Not just in this country, but in any highly vaccinated country. Somewhere, somehow this should be visible. I’ve not seen a single dataset from any country in the world that shows any hint of a large number of vaccine deaths. Nowhere.
Cheers
PP
Hi PP
“So let’s hold off on talk of rational and irrational, ok? I’ll accept you have a rational point of view and you could do me the same courtesy.”
What’s the difference in courtesy between talking about the rationality of an argument and zero, nada zilch and James Bond. An argument can be irrational if it misses something fundamental; doesn’t mean to say the person is irrational. That said, agreement about the fundamental is proving elusive…
“False. 10K deaths over the 3 or 4 months of vaccine rollout would be easily visible. As it is for covid.”
The seasonality can hide 1K deaths per week. Your graph has a full year June-June in between covid waves where the without-covid deaths were very flat. (I assume the without-covid deaths are the blue line).
(Me: as the evidence people have brought is not included in your data,)
“Not exactly… All deaths, including those used as evidence for vaccine deaths are included in the data. The fact that vaccine deaths are invisible is interesting to me. What is not included in my chart is speculation about what might be causing the deaths. First there have to be deaths, then we can worry about the cause. If there are not a great number of new deaths, then there is nothing to explain.”
You can’t say there are not deaths. Even what looks like zero can be the sum of two or more factors. Specifically, deaths could be hidden, there could be a lot more deaths caused by the vaccine if it is simultaneously stopping a comparable number of covid deaths.
My point though, was that you claim other analysis can explain why there seems to be no indication (on the total deaths graph) of vaccines reducing deaths, but if there seems to be (according to you) no indication on the same graph that vaccines are causing deaths, the possiblility of such an explanation is ruled out.
“Not sure I understand this. Perhaps you could actually show me quantitatively with actual data what you mean?”
Well if X+Y= 0 (approximately), X= covid deaths saved, Y= deaths caused by vaccine. Both X and Y could be quite large numbers, cancelling each other out. You will point to wonderful reduction in covid deaths and others will point to deaths that were flagged up by ohter means.
So in the distant view from outer space, what looks like zero could be many thousands in reality.
Me: You seem not to accept that these two numbers could add together.
“That’s not the point I was making at all. I was saying this:
n(A) = n(A ∪ B) - n(B) + n(A ∩ B)
You just kept ignoring the third term on the right, which is mathematically incorrect.”
I ignored it because you haven’t identified it. I did however point out that if there are other factors that mitigate the absence of dramatic evidence on graphs of total deaths, then this can equally be the case whether we are talking about vaccines causing deaths or vaccines saving deaths.
“Finally on the point of vaccines saving lives - they specifically save the lives of people with Covid. Vaccines don’t save people who don’t die from Covid. The reason you can’t see that very clearly on the graph above is that I didn’t include Covid cases - it was busy enough already.”
They might be saving people from covid, but that’s not obvious from the graph - both peaks came down, one when there was a vaccine and one where there was not.
In addition - a genuinely new point - covid deaths in the unvaccinated came down too, though after a delay.
"But…
Look at what happens to Covid specific deaths in the chart I posted. They almost disappear. That is the work of the vaccine. That is why after spring 2021, the vaccine is uncorrelated with all cause mortality - because people are not dying of the disease that is affected by the vaccine. No correlation is exactly what you would expect. "
As I said, they disappeared last year too. Non vaccine voluminous veritas 
“As I have already explained to you, deaths caused by vaccine are different. They are adding in a new cause of death, not removing one. They should be easily visible on the chart above, and there should be a positive correlation with all cause mortality. The exact opposite of the case above.”
We’re using numbers though. Adding or removing - isn’t that why we have addition and subtraction? A model (even a thought-model) needs to be able to cope with negative numbers, without special ‘explanations’.
You might get a correlation if it was the biggest cause of death. First you’d need to deal with the confounders. Seasonality, age of vaccination, age of deaths and ages of the unvaxxed. The trouble is the converse isn’t true, you might not see a correlation that was there because you’ve allowed smaller effects to be subsumed in the larger picture.
I’ll point out that, presumably in order to be on safe ground, you are only looking to deny there were large numbers of vaccine deaths but what could lie below that generous (for your argument) threshold could still be very important.
“That is why the correlations between vaccines and covid vs all cause mortality mean very different things. Again, I feel like this explanation is clear. If you still don’t get it, then we’ll have to wait. I prob won’t be able to get back online properly until this evening or tomorrow now.”
“As I have asked several times now - where are the vaccine deaths hiding? Where is the correlation? Not just in this country, but in any highly vaccinated country. Somewhere, somehow this should be visible. I’ve not seen a single dataset from any country in the world that shows any hint of a large number of vaccine deaths. Nowhere.”
With no breakdown of deaths proposed, this is rhetorical. Unrecognized effects hide in data noise and there are a lot of factors caught up in your broad sweep.
Seasonality bends the data, your graph somehow unbends it.
PP, I’m a bit concerned about the time we’re wasting getting nowhere with each other - I’m sure you’re the same! We’re not at the same base and not getting closer, so what you produce from that base might not narrow the gap. I’m not sure if I want to spend any more time arguing about the starting point.
Might be worth thinking if it’s worth the time doing anything elaborate, when we can just agree that I’m right to differ!?
If you think I’ve jibed you, jibe me back and be done with it. After all, the discussion will then be fully jibed, that’s got to be good as along as we avoid these poison jibes
Cheers
ED
This is why I like to stick my head out the front door now and then! 
I am definitely suffering from cognitive dissonance, with people I love and respect firmly on either end of the spectrum.
I am skeptical of both sides of this but it seems to me that the evidence is showing that the vaccines do decrease the number of serious cases.
A couple of provinces in Canada have cancelled non Covid related surgeries and procedures due to overload with Covid patients. Medical staff are overwhelmed and exhausted.
Here’s an article about Nova Scotia statistics, written by someone who is on board with the public health recommendations. The image below is him detailing the math he used.
Hi Jackie, good to see you coming in to a thread!
Most of the concern is serious side effects; these deaths aren’t counted under covid deaths. So if you look only at covid, it will make the vaccine look more of a good idea. If you count the other effects, it could be terrible overall, but look good in the covid stats.
So that’s a key point.
Perhaps even more important is to be aware of the timescales.
Starting the time period (21 March?) when almost no-one was fully vaccinated means it’s not a straight comparison at the same period in time, as only 1.65% of the Canadian population was double jabbed. (I’m just going by Canada data from Ourworldindata)
| (Canada) | covid deaths | %vaxed | deaths per day | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-March | 6/1 to 21/3 | 6138 | 0.00 | 82.9 |
| Mar to July | 21/3 to 19/7 | 3828 | 26.00 | 31.9 |
| July to Oct | 19/7 to end | 1838 | 61.00 | 21.6 |
Before the time period began, there was a rate of 82.9 deaths per day (I mean covid deaths).
This reduced to 31.9% during Mar-July, the first half of the period, i.e. by more than half.
The % vaxed (just taking the average) was only 26%.
Could the death rate drop by more than half with 26% vaccinations?
Not really! The rate must have been falling.
So a lot of these deaths when there were hardly any vaccinated people are shoring up the ‘unvaccinated deaths’ tally that is being counted 7 months later.
These headlines about nearly 100% being unvaccinated are deliberately misleading. (They did the same in the UK and US, i.e. starting early.)
I think the writer is aware of such things and later counts from Sep 30 to the present…
But he doesn’t do deaths, just cases! Probably because there would be few covid deaths in such a short period (I’d estimate 2-3 in NS based on Canada.)
That brings me to my third point. Canada’s death rate has been small in conparison with the US (only about a third) and Europe. That bumps up the number of people needing to get vaccinated to save each death, and adds to the other risks from vaccinations - the cost-benefit analysis, that thing they mention that is never done.
Are they talking about boosters yet?
Cheers
Lots to think about there. Thanks for your comments.
This up to date page detailing vax stats and adverse reactions to the vax (near the bottom of the page) is from a Cdn province that has been very hard hit by the virus recently. Out of 6.2 million people vaccinated (some one jab, some two, and some three), they are reporting that 1706 people have had adverse reactions. As to how many people may have died due to the vax, I don’t know.
Hi ED
Thanks for the reply. I’ll address a couple of points first, and move onto the quantitative data stuff next.
Hmm. There is a big difference between saying that I don’t see any data supporting a speculation about 10s of thousands of deaths, and joking about James Bond, and calling another poster on the board irrational. Perhaps you didn’t mean it that way, but as you have called me such things in the past, I thought I’d nip it in the bud this time.
Honestly this is not a good idea. This sort of thing makes a board toxic quickly, as you and I both know. One of the reasons we started 5F is to avoid this kind of back and forth. How about we continue to focus on actual data instead? We should be able to at least have a conversation about numbers, mathematics and statistics - something we both have a background in.
Interesting. This is a question we can actually answer with the data. Is the data hiding 1K excess deaths a week? Let’s see how far over the 5-year average (2015-2019) the death rate was during the vaccine rollout. Let’s see what was hiding there.
From March to July - just as the vaccine rollout was at its greatest, and the covid wave had ended - the death rate was consistently below the 5-year average. No excess deaths hiding there - just as I have been saying over and over. This is exactly the period that we should see vaccine deaths most clearly - there are no other major confounding factors - just background mortality. We don’t see anything though.
An interesting speculation, bit it is highly unlikely. As I’ve said many times now - the trend in deaths should follow the trend in vaccines. That’s what a correlation is, right? Unless there was an opposite trend in something that was exactly equal to the vaccine rollout trend, the two will not cancel out. The vaccine rollout trend is very unique. It has a unique shape. If it was causing deaths we would see that shape replicated in the death data… but we don’t. On the other hand, we do see the shape of covid cases and covid deaths. That’s because covid causes people to die. We should see that with vaccines too, if vaccines were causing many people to die, but it looks like they aren’t.
This is not likely for exactly the reason I just stated. I think you’ll see this if you think about it. It’s all in the trends.
Really? I’m 100% sure I explained it several times. I think it’s worth taking a look at the other thread - I really did explain what the intersection term was. Just as I have explained the correlation issue and other things too. I’m doing my best here.
Have a look at the graph I just posted. A rise in covid cases leads to a rise in deaths. Initially we didn’t do a lot of tests, so the deaths look outsized compared to the number of cases. The second wave was more accurate. In the third wave, when 70-80% of adults in the UK were vaccinated, the deaths are far smaller than would be expected based on the case numbers. This looks to me like the vaccine effect. It’s a very clear signal in the data. Vaccinated people didn’t end up dying as they would have in earlier waves.
Yes - that’s right. I don’t see any evidence for a large number of deaths, such as have been stated as fact many times on this board. Perhaps a 100 people died. Perhaps 1000. Once we start getting to >10K plus I would expect to see a clear signal in the data. There isn’t one that I can find, and I have looked pretty hard.
It’s far from rhetorical. I have shown that instead of a massive increase in deaths, there are actually fewer deaths than the 5 year average precisely during the vaccine rollout. There is no obvious correlation between the massive rollout of vaccines and the mortality record - no trend can be spotted in the data. It is extremely unlikely that 10s of thousands of deaths are somehow hiding in the data. If you can spot something I’ve missed then do point it out. “Unrecognized effects” is no explanation.
As hard as I look, the large number of deaths speculated are just not in the data. Not in England, or in any other dataset I’ve looked at. Unless I have made a mistake somewhere, and I’m happy to have that pointed out.
I feel like that it would be a good thing if you were to at least acknowledge some of the points I’m making here. The lack of correlation, the reason why zero correlation is a positive for the efficacy of the vaccine, but a negative for vaccine death hypotheses, the reduction in mortality when we roll out the vaccine and should have expected an increase, the correlation between covid cases and covid deaths or even the fact that you consistently left out the interaction term in the equation above.
There are a lot of point here that I’ve made. Either they are right or not. The best way to continue is for you, or someone, to look at the actual points I’m making, understand the arguments I’m posting (ask me if there are things you don’t understand, as I ask others when I have questions), and either show me where I’m wrong, or agree that I’m right, or give me an alternative hypothesis that fits the data. That would be a productive response to all the points I’m making, surely…?
I’ll leave it there for now.
Cheers
PP
Hi Jamie
My experience matches that apocalyptic mainstream narrative pretty closely. I’ve had close family members die, people literally in my street losing relatives etc. etc. This is why anecdotes can only take you so far.
I agree with you that there are definitely outrageous shenanigans going on. I also agree with your point (20) 100%
Cheers
PP
Hi RG
Unless the frontline doctors point out how many people died of Covid. Those frontline professionals are not to be trusted, as I remember.
Some testimony good, and some testimony bad… The main point I was making was that in my actual real world - outside my “door” people have died of covid. People have got sick and gone to hospital. In your world that is not the case. That was the main point.
Aside from that, I’m happy to accept that some people are getting sick, and some people are even dying. I cannot accept that 10s-100s of thousands of people are dying, as the mortality figures are perfectly in line with what we would expect for this time of year. If many more people than usual were dying (as, indeed, they did from Covid) we would see that in the mortality data.
We don’t…
Cheers
PP
hi Jackie
For what it’s worth, I do agree with you on this. 100% To my mind, the question is not “does the vaccine help reduce serious illness” but rather “how should we use these vaccines in the most responsible way possible?”
In answer to that question, I feel that Rob Malone has the best advice - only provide vaccines to those who are at high risk, and not to anyone else. This reduces the most harmful effects, reduces the likelihood of breakthrough variants, and protects the most vulnerable. For everyone else we should be prescribing actual treatments.
Sounds pretty sensible to me!
Cheers
PP
Thanks Rob
Israel is one of the most useful countries from a data perspective that we have. I’ll have a read.
Cheers
P, you don’t know what the real death figures are, either for the covid-flu or for the poisons-stabs. None of we sitathome keyboard warriors know any of that with even a threshold degree of reliability. We really have to stop kidding ourselves and rid ourselves of that level of certainty. We just don’t know. None of us!
And I have to say that no amount of angels-and-pinheads-style picking at all the - alleged - figures flying around is going to give us those certainties. That’s precisely the way that even the dissidents are supposed to waste their energy.
That’s why I approach the mystery from a different angle: I see how many people whom I can find who give me the impression - yes it really is as diaphanous as that! - 
of being straight, with no axe to grind and no apparent affiliation to any big, agenda-pursuing outfit. And I listen to what they say, especially when they seem to be bona-fide qualified in the field about which they’re speaking. Then I ruminate and ask myself how much credit do I award them. What’s the final intuitive assessment? Can’t see any other way to operate, till the dust has settled and some more reliable truth actually manages to seep out, probably in a few years’ time.
I can’t see any other way for people in our position to search for the real truth behind the quite obvious mountains of deceit and deeply-criminal axe-grinding that we can all see going on.
Sorry to have to be at loggerheads with you over this, good bro. But I really can’t find anything which convinces me that the narrative about a mass-killing pathogen is in any way true. A nasty flu that’s killing some, sure; as flus do every year. Possibly tampered with; maybe deliberately released by - someone - as a bioweapon. But a pandemic (in the honest, dictionary, non-World Hoax Organisation definition of the word)? Nope! Don’t believe it!
Nor can I find the smallest smidgeon of reassurance that we should do anything with the poisons-stabs but flush them; or more realistically, burn them in high-temperature furnaces, like Gollum falling into Mount Doom with The Ring - to unmake it. They seem to do no good (well, none worthy of the name anyway; nor do I trust that those pushing them care a damn about the good of we mere hoi-polloi anyway). But they do offer vast harms already, with the strong possibility that there’s something more behind them too, likely to manifest further down the road.
These realities are already spilling out into public consciousness despite all the desperate efforts going on to obfuscate the truth. Too many abused plebs coming out with their appalled - and appalling - testimonies for it to be stopped. That dam will break.
This is about all the useful response that I think I can make in this dispute. BTW, the emoji function is peeing me about again…
Cheers to you and yours, especially the furry one…! I miss my sweetie. But I couldn’t do justice to another dog in my decrepit state. - Rh.
These little pricks are out and out criminals, who, if there’s any justice in this world, will go to the gallows one day:
Hi RG
you catch me as I’m about to sign off for the evening. I appreciate that you and I take different approaches to all this. I don’t have a problem with that. I prefer to focus on the deaths that have been recorded, you prefer to focus on anecdotes. At some point those things should approach one another… I await that day.
this is the issue I was raising. You are happy to accept as gospel frontline staff claiming vaccine deaths (which have no data supporting them in the actual death records), and yet you continually dismiss the frontline staff reporting covid deaths (whose deaths are definitely reflected in the death records).
I don’t know what to make of that. But I love you still.
Be well. Lula and all of us send love your way.
Peace
PP
Incidentally, I think that Rob Malone and I have exactly the same attitude to the vaccines. They are useful and have a crucial role to play, but they should be kept only for those who need them. In this case, I’m happy to be on Malone’s team…
By the way, a few weeks back, I posted about Gladys Jerkoff, the Premier of New South Wales, who resigned after it was revealed that she was taking huge paybacks from Big Pharma to push the vaccines…
The little prick who has replaced Gladys as Premier of New South Wales is another corporate puppet.
Just firing this quick response off as I’ve written it, not needing a reply or anything.
ED
PP I didn’t call you irrational. I said your point wasn’t rational. My jibe thing was a joke, no need for earnest recriminations. I think it’s best not to add up subjective behaviour scores?
The seasonality could hide 1K excess deaths per week is evident from the size of the upturn in the U shape.
By the way, there have been 70K excess deaths at home in England and Wales - well hidden, even after I mentioned them
But as I said, excess deaths is where your analysis should start, not single variable correlation in a multivariable setting. Usually that’s only good for plausible denial, IMHO, because that’s the only scientists that use it. Saw it over and over with ‘safety studies’.
We see the deaths during the so-called covid waves. No clear pattern to any vaccine deaths, just as there is no clear pattern to vaccines saving lives, compared with 2020. Maybe the vaccine would have saved large numbers of lives, if it had got going before the second wave hit (if indeed that’s what happened) but your first graph to me shows the deaths dropping just as the vaccine was getting going.
And as I say deaths in the unvaccinated dropped too, a little more slowly than in the vaxxed. So I wouldn’t accept the vaccine saving masses of lives as a baseline or throw-in result.
I don’t feel you’ve understood the correlation - it seems to me you just talked up one variable and leaned against or ducked the other. This is the first time you’ve acknowledged my X+Y=0 point was a possible point.
No doubt you’re clocking things to come back on, we’re not close to agreement.
If low case fatality rate is due to the vaccine then the vaccine must be doing a lot of the transmission. UK, Scotland, US, Israel are low CFR but still in top quarter in terms of high deaths.
" I feel like that it would be a good thing if you were to at least acknowledge some of the points I’m making here. The lack of correlation, the reason why zero correlation is a positive for the efficacy of the vaccine, but a negative for vaccine death hypotheses, the reduction in mortality when we roll out the vaccine and should have expected an increase, the correlation between covid cases and covid deaths or even the fact that you consistently left out the interaction term in the equation above."
We started here with the claim by a Twitter punter that his ‘zero correlation’ between vaccine rollout and deaths showed there were not large deaths and the additional claim (of yours) that this somehow did not equally show there were not large numbers of deaths being saved.
We’ve hardly got past the first line. I don’t think you’ve accepted points of mine that were obviously valid. I thought I had showed you where you were wrong. Likewise you me.
No point you suggesting now how I could be productive, I’ve been trying to do that for a long time in these discussions. I don’t think we can retrieve a useful thread from this, without starting from scratch. I think it’s the wrong direction to begin with - it’s popular with those resisting effects (but funnels multi variables into one and ignores on the ground developments), who then say What Armada etc.
So while it would be nice to edge forwards, I really don’t mind not agreeing! (Especially as I didn’t have time for what we did do). Better than falling out
Cheers
ED
Rhis, I suppose we can all pile on graphs and stats till the cows come home (and you all know the old saying about stats!).
I would hazard that the main thing here is just how totally corrupt politicians are, worldwide.
Secondary to that is how naive people are to believe politicians, and to think they are looking out for our best interests.
The people behind the covid scam have all got to put on trial and go to the gallows.
You know I like an anecdote. So, when I was living in San Fran in the 1980s, on the other side of the Bay was the San Quentin prison. To this day, amongst all countries in the world, San Quentin holds by far the largest number of Death Row inmates. In the early years they used to hang them, then they used gas chambers, and in recent times they’ve used death by lethal injection. I should add to this:
On March 13, 2019, after Governor Gavin Newsom ordered a moratorium on the state’s death penalty, the state withdrew its current lethal injection protocol, and San Quentin dismantled and indefinitely closed its gas and lethal injection execution chambers.
(from Wikipedia)
Back in the 1980s they were also using the electric chair to kill prisoners in San Quentin: something that’s not often talked about. We knew that some poor soul had been strapped into Old Sparky, because the lights in our apartment would flicker on and off.
We simply don’t know what the real statistics for this whole huge scam are. Anyone here who purports to know is simply kidding him/herself.
We do know that lots of aggrieved common citizens and qualified professionals are observing and testifying to large numbers of adverse reactions to the stabs, directly observed by themselves!
Many of those same professionals are also insisting that there are no genuine signs of an excess mass-death event from a ‘pandemic’, behind the constant flood of - obvious - propaganda lies.
Lacking ANY reliable figures, those testimonies are all we have to go on. And they point inexorably to simple conclusions: there is NO massive excess death toll from this tampered flu pathogen; and the stabs are three things: unnecessary, ineffectual, and deadly dangerous. Natural immunity, plus the already well-established, actually-genuine treatments for those who fall ill, are all we need.
I stand firm on these conclusions. So now, those who will - argue away about angels and pinheads, at your pleasure …