Thanks Rob
Israel is one of the most useful countries from a data perspective that we have. I’ll have a read.
Cheers
P, you don’t know what the real death figures are, either for the covid-flu or for the poisons-stabs. None of we sitathome keyboard warriors know any of that with even a threshold degree of reliability. We really have to stop kidding ourselves and rid ourselves of that level of certainty. We just don’t know. None of us!
And I have to say that no amount of angels-and-pinheads-style picking at all the - alleged - figures flying around is going to give us those certainties. That’s precisely the way that even the dissidents are supposed to waste their energy.
That’s why I approach the mystery from a different angle: I see how many people whom I can find who give me the impression - yes it really is as diaphanous as that! - 
of being straight, with no axe to grind and no apparent affiliation to any big, agenda-pursuing outfit. And I listen to what they say, especially when they seem to be bona-fide qualified in the field about which they’re speaking. Then I ruminate and ask myself how much credit do I award them. What’s the final intuitive assessment? Can’t see any other way to operate, till the dust has settled and some more reliable truth actually manages to seep out, probably in a few years’ time.
I can’t see any other way for people in our position to search for the real truth behind the quite obvious mountains of deceit and deeply-criminal axe-grinding that we can all see going on.
Sorry to have to be at loggerheads with you over this, good bro. But I really can’t find anything which convinces me that the narrative about a mass-killing pathogen is in any way true. A nasty flu that’s killing some, sure; as flus do every year. Possibly tampered with; maybe deliberately released by - someone - as a bioweapon. But a pandemic (in the honest, dictionary, non-World Hoax Organisation definition of the word)? Nope! Don’t believe it!
Nor can I find the smallest smidgeon of reassurance that we should do anything with the poisons-stabs but flush them; or more realistically, burn them in high-temperature furnaces, like Gollum falling into Mount Doom with The Ring - to unmake it. They seem to do no good (well, none worthy of the name anyway; nor do I trust that those pushing them care a damn about the good of we mere hoi-polloi anyway). But they do offer vast harms already, with the strong possibility that there’s something more behind them too, likely to manifest further down the road.
These realities are already spilling out into public consciousness despite all the desperate efforts going on to obfuscate the truth. Too many abused plebs coming out with their appalled - and appalling - testimonies for it to be stopped. That dam will break.
This is about all the useful response that I think I can make in this dispute. BTW, the emoji function is peeing me about again… 
Cheers to you and yours, especially the furry one…! I miss my sweetie. But I couldn’t do justice to another dog in my decrepit state. - Rh.
These little pricks are out and out criminals, who, if there’s any justice in this world, will go to the gallows one day:
Hi RG
you catch me as I’m about to sign off for the evening. I appreciate that you and I take different approaches to all this. I don’t have a problem with that. I prefer to focus on the deaths that have been recorded, you prefer to focus on anecdotes. At some point those things should approach one another… I await that day.
this is the issue I was raising. You are happy to accept as gospel frontline staff claiming vaccine deaths (which have no data supporting them in the actual death records), and yet you continually dismiss the frontline staff reporting covid deaths (whose deaths are definitely reflected in the death records).
I don’t know what to make of that. But I love you still.
Be well. Lula and all of us send love your way.
Peace
PP
Incidentally, I think that Rob Malone and I have exactly the same attitude to the vaccines. They are useful and have a crucial role to play, but they should be kept only for those who need them. In this case, I’m happy to be on Malone’s team…
By the way, a few weeks back, I posted about Gladys Jerkoff, the Premier of New South Wales, who resigned after it was revealed that she was taking huge paybacks from Big Pharma to push the vaccines…
The little prick who has replaced Gladys as Premier of New South Wales is another corporate puppet.
Just firing this quick response off as I’ve written it, not needing a reply or anything.
ED
PP I didn’t call you irrational. I said your point wasn’t rational. My jibe thing was a joke, no need for earnest recriminations. I think it’s best not to add up subjective behaviour scores?
The seasonality could hide 1K excess deaths per week is evident from the size of the upturn in the U shape.
By the way, there have been 70K excess deaths at home in England and Wales - well hidden, even after I mentioned them 
But as I said, excess deaths is where your analysis should start, not single variable correlation in a multivariable setting. Usually that’s only good for plausible denial, IMHO, because that’s the only scientists that use it. Saw it over and over with ‘safety studies’.
We see the deaths during the so-called covid waves. No clear pattern to any vaccine deaths, just as there is no clear pattern to vaccines saving lives, compared with 2020. Maybe the vaccine would have saved large numbers of lives, if it had got going before the second wave hit (if indeed that’s what happened) but your first graph to me shows the deaths dropping just as the vaccine was getting going.
And as I say deaths in the unvaccinated dropped too, a little more slowly than in the vaxxed. So I wouldn’t accept the vaccine saving masses of lives as a baseline or throw-in result.
I don’t feel you’ve understood the correlation - it seems to me you just talked up one variable and leaned against or ducked the other. This is the first time you’ve acknowledged my X+Y=0 point was a possible point.
No doubt you’re clocking things to come back on, we’re not close to agreement.
If low case fatality rate is due to the vaccine then the vaccine must be doing a lot of the transmission. UK, Scotland, US, Israel are low CFR but still in top quarter in terms of high deaths.
" I feel like that it would be a good thing if you were to at least acknowledge some of the points I’m making here. The lack of correlation, the reason why zero correlation is a positive for the efficacy of the vaccine, but a negative for vaccine death hypotheses, the reduction in mortality when we roll out the vaccine and should have expected an increase, the correlation between covid cases and covid deaths or even the fact that you consistently left out the interaction term in the equation above."
We started here with the claim by a Twitter punter that his ‘zero correlation’ between vaccine rollout and deaths showed there were not large deaths and the additional claim (of yours) that this somehow did not equally show there were not large numbers of deaths being saved.
We’ve hardly got past the first line. I don’t think you’ve accepted points of mine that were obviously valid. I thought I had showed you where you were wrong. Likewise you me.
No point you suggesting now how I could be productive, I’ve been trying to do that for a long time in these discussions. I don’t think we can retrieve a useful thread from this, without starting from scratch. I think it’s the wrong direction to begin with - it’s popular with those resisting effects (but funnels multi variables into one and ignores on the ground developments), who then say What Armada etc.
So while it would be nice to edge forwards, I really don’t mind not agreeing! (Especially as I didn’t have time for what we did do). Better than falling out 
Cheers
ED
Rhis, I suppose we can all pile on graphs and stats till the cows come home (and you all know the old saying about stats!).
I would hazard that the main thing here is just how totally corrupt politicians are, worldwide.
Secondary to that is how naive people are to believe politicians, and to think they are looking out for our best interests.
The people behind the covid scam have all got to put on trial and go to the gallows.
You know I like an anecdote. So, when I was living in San Fran in the 1980s, on the other side of the Bay was the San Quentin prison. To this day, amongst all countries in the world, San Quentin holds by far the largest number of Death Row inmates. In the early years they used to hang them, then they used gas chambers, and in recent times they’ve used death by lethal injection. I should add to this:
On March 13, 2019, after Governor Gavin Newsom ordered a moratorium on the state’s death penalty, the state withdrew its current lethal injection protocol, and San Quentin dismantled and indefinitely closed its gas and lethal injection execution chambers.
(from Wikipedia)
Back in the 1980s they were also using the electric chair to kill prisoners in San Quentin: something that’s not often talked about. We knew that some poor soul had been strapped into Old Sparky, because the lights in our apartment would flicker on and off.
We simply don’t know what the real statistics for this whole huge scam are. Anyone here who purports to know is simply kidding him/herself.
We do know that lots of aggrieved common citizens and qualified professionals are observing and testifying to large numbers of adverse reactions to the stabs, directly observed by themselves!
Many of those same professionals are also insisting that there are no genuine signs of an excess mass-death event from a ‘pandemic’, behind the constant flood of - obvious - propaganda lies.
Lacking ANY reliable figures, those testimonies are all we have to go on. And they point inexorably to simple conclusions: there is NO massive excess death toll from this tampered flu pathogen; and the stabs are three things: unnecessary, ineffectual, and deadly dangerous. Natural immunity, plus the already well-established, actually-genuine treatments for those who fall ill, are all we need.
I stand firm on these conclusions. So now, those who will - argue away about angels and pinheads, at your pleasure …
Too busy fighting this battle at home, and I don’t need any more info to persuade me that we are witnessing a truly demonic and globally coordinated campaign of coercion and control that has no precedent, even in Nazi Germany.
This is my yardstick, by which to judge the honesty and bona fides of “authorities” pushing the vaxing campaign for all they are worth, and now heavying reluctant people into getting the jab to avoid losing their jobs, while instituting a vaccine passport. ALL opposition to the program is called “anti-vaxer” and filled with abuse and intolerance and threats. … My yardstick has always been and continues with force to be the “vaccination” - with mRNA - of children and pregnant women, for whom there have been NO TRIALS. Australia is about to authorise the use of Pfizer for 5-11 year olds, only a week after Pfizer said they had approved its “efficacy and safety”.
Even if parents don’t know, and young mothers don’t know, Pfizer and Moderna have known from the beginning that these drugs may have any number of dangerous side effects in the future, that may not easily be provable or evident, just like sub-clinical myocarditis is not. THey also ALL know - drug companies and health authorities and leaders, that this disease has absolutely minimal effect on kids under 18, which is why some agencies like the JCVI have recommended against their use.
The added giveaway of their malign agenda is the total failure to note that infection leads to natural and lasting immunity, and the freedom to abandon ALL restrictions. That these people who have actually “endured” the disease and “recovered” are still being vaccinated is the worst of crimes, and medical incompetence at its worst. What doctor worth his salt could possibly not understand this?
Funnily I heard that in Austria people are given an antibody test before being vaxed to make sure they haven’t already gained immunity, and the shot will be refused if they have. Here we have a 17 year old held up on TV last night who nearly died after catching it (she was obese…) and as a warning to those who don’t want the vax as to what will happen to them if they don’t have it. From this I imagine that this young woman had the shot despite having had the disease…
So it doesn’t really matter who many people die or don’t die from the virus or the vaccine, when the whole project is not really about either; they are just the means to an end, and this is THEIR end not ours.
Hi all
So once again when faced with actual real-world death certificate data showing a decrease in deaths during the vaccine rollout most people just prefer to ignore it.
I’m 100% sure that if I had shown an. increase in deaths during the rollout, it would have been unconditionally accepted here, and I would be invited onto UKC with great fanfare, who are happy to use ONS data if it proves their point. I would have also accepted it as strong evidence.
For those who are still trying to understand what’s going on, I leave the following open question
If the vaccine was causing large numbers of deaths, how did the actually recorded deaths in that period drop below the 5-year average of background mortality?
This doesn’t seem possible to me. If anyone has a good explanation then I’m all ears.
Until then I continue to see zero evidence that the vaccine had caused a large number of deaths in the UK, despite the tearful anecdotes going round.
Cheers
PP
Hi ED
A few final thoughts.
Your U-shape is not particularly evident in the actual data. And the recorded deaths are below the average background. It is a cunning source of death that manages to kill a lot of people by killing fewer than the average… There are no extra deaths hiding in the numbers there. If you can find em I’ll definitely take a look.
That’s exactly how modellers are taught to start their data analysis. You start with the simplest analysis and build up in complexity as needed. In this case the data is so obvious that no appeal to multivariate is needed.
There is a very clear pattern to saving lives. I explained it above. Have another read.
It’s not a possible point really. I’ve explained it several times now. If the vaccines were killing people we should see that pattern in the data. We don’t.
I have actually addressed - with data - all the points you raised. You’ve addressed none of mine so far.
I think you’re right that we won’t come to agreement. I think we won’t even get to anyone actually analysing the data I’ve shown.
If no one wants to really examine the data, then we won’t get to agreement… How could we?
I’m also happy to agree to disagree. If yourself, or anyone else, wants to look at the data with me and have a discussion around what it’s showing, I remain open.
Cheers
PP
Presumably if there have been excessive excess deaths (although that’s up for debate) then would one not expect a period of time, albeit brief perhaps, where those prior excess deaths had ‘soaked up’ the vulnerable resulting in fewer subsequent deaths? If so, then people could be still dying in significant numbers from the ‘vaccine’ but hidden, so to speak.
Hi Jamie
Yes, you’re right. But that limits the number of vaccine deaths that could have occurred. We can’t have the numbers that are being handled about as real. What covid did was kill off large numbers of the vulnerable. People who might have died in September, say, died in February instead.
Those people are all part of the background death rate.
If a new source of death had suddenly appeared - a new disease, say - that killed a lot of people, we should see a new spike in deaths above the background rate, in addition to those who died of covid.
I don’t see any evidence for any new such source of deaths above the background, be it a new illness, or deaths from the vaccinations.
Cheers
OK a final one
There is no U-turn! Just a difference of plus or minus two and a half thousand per week, depending on what season you are in
And it hid 800 deaths per week in homes (as I said already).
It’s not like an expedition where you find wonderful objects and instantly recognize them. You have to define them properly, and separate the real from the artefactual.
If you haven’t encountered confounding, you can get upside down results because you’ve missed the main variable.
It is never the case that anlyzing one variable is sufficient. A missed variable if it’s key renders your analysis useless.
You can’t run just with correlation, I think you overestimate it’s power and underestimate pitfalls. If you use it in a multivariable setting you need to use multiple regression.
I think there’s an element of circularity in your denial of X+Y=0. We should see that pattern in the data you say…you seem to deny it using the outcome that you are trying to reach.
No point in your pretending that you have presented lots of sound stats and argument while I have ignored them. The discussion fell down at eqach others’ explanations. Probably because we started off with you responding to other threads and me responding to that - we should have haggled more over the basics before firming up our divergent lines of thought.
Let’s reach a posture-free agreement that we do not agree!
Cheers
ED
But if, let’s say, there were 10,000 excess deaths in any given period (compared to a similar period in previous years) and then you introduced a magic pill; not only, as established, would there be fewer deaths due to there being fewer vulnerable people and thereby make it look like a direct result of the pill, but it could also hide the pill-related deaths given that they too would be being compared to previous ‘normal’ years.
Hello angels! Here’s your pinhead. Dance away! 
If by pinhead you mean actual data about what’s happening in the world, then I’m happy to dance in it.
Beats making stuff up and believing random folks on YouTube.
Cheers
Hi Jamie
Your thought experiment doesn’t match up to the actual data showing what happened. There is a clear relationship between vaccination and a reduction in deaths… I’ve spoken about it at length above. Have another read.
It would only hide pill related deaths if the numbers of such deaths were tiny in comparison. Otherwise the correlations would show through against the background mortality and they don’t.
Hope that’s clear
Hi ED
I’m not sure what you’re showing with your graph there. I have showed the actual 5-year average from ONS above and showed that where there should be a spike in deaths there was a fall. Your chart changes nothing and doesn’t address any point I’m making…
Multivariate analysis is pure red herring. It would be better if you actually looked at the analysis I presented and showed me why is not sufficient. Deaths at home is another red herring… Let’s stay on the actual subject.
There were fewer than expected deaths during the vaccine rollout. There is no pattern visible in the deaths that did occur.
There is no large vaccine death toll hiding in the data.
Couldn’t be clearer
Cheers