Total confusion seems to be Russia’s position at the moment , see this from b at MOA, the comments are diverse as usual but interesting:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/11/the-pullout-from-kherson.html#comments
cheers
Mercouris 9th November:
Russia Vuhledar Advance, Denies Losses in Pavlovka, Takes Donetsk Airport; Rumours of US Diplomacy
Mercouris 7th November:
Standstill Kherson. Fighting in Pavlivka. Xi Jinping to Meet MbS, Seal Deal on Saudi Arabia & BRICS
I suspect Mrecouris made the 9/11/22 video before he had news of the Russian statements on Kherson , see here:
cheers
It’s hard to tell what’s going on; fog of war, and all that.
The Ukraine military were defeated months ago. This is now a direct fight between USA/NATO and Russia (did you vote for that? Ha!). USA/NATO is pouring huge amounts of money and arms into Ukraine. They are also pouring in huge amounts of mercenaries, under the guise of the (now defeated) Ukraine military. They want to keep this war going as long as possible. They don’t give a jot about how many people get slaughtered; or indeed how many people are displaced - the refugee crisis from Ukraine will make the Syrian war look like a picnic.
And I know I go on about this, yet will say again: right from the start of this conflict in February, USA/NATO and their presstitutes have been banging on about nuclear power stations and nuclear weapons. The fact that the Russians have evacuated both their military and the civillians from Kherson leads me to the conclusion that there’s going to be some kind of nuclear incident.
My conclusion will probably be wrong.
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I usually watch the nightly roundup on the Ukraine Military Summary odysee or rumble but tonight I also had about an hour of Lira, Berletic and Martyanov which is more hopeful for Russian aims.
hat tip sashimi on TLN:
- no sign of nukes amongst these guys, although the first platform has examined the potential for turning nuclear power plants into dirty bombs on the edge of Russian territory! This may in fact lead to peace rather than any extension, let’s hope so anyway.
cheers
CJ1, thanks for the link. It’s a long stream and I haven’t had a chance to watch it all yet. The stuff that Gonzalo puts out is always worth watching.
That said, everyone is scratching their head with regard to the Russian withdrawal from Kherson, because the city is of vital strategic importance in the Ukraine war. Also notable here is the evacuation of the civilian population from the city. That takes a lot of time/energy/resources; something you wouldn’t ordinarily do in a war zone.
I forgot to mention in my previous post that in recent weeks the Russians have made a big ho hah about USA/NATO using a ‘dirty bomb’. I would still lay a bet that this is what might be happening with the Kherson stuff.
Militarily, USA/NATO can’t beat the Russians (because USA/NATO have destroyed their own industrial base). It was the same back in the 1980s (I was on the front line at the time). Everyone knew that if the Soviet/Warsaw Pact started rolling across the German plain, within three days the nukes would start flying, because the West didn’t have the military strength to stand up to them.
I don’t know how many here have any experience of the military, particularly at the height of the Cold War. Does anyone remember ‘noddy suits’? (this was heavy protective clothing against nuclear, biological and chemical warfare) How the hell could any soldier fight whilst wearing all that crap?!
It was all Dr Strangelove; completely insane; Alice In Wonderland.
The frightening thing is that this mindset still exists in the West, particularly in Washington and London.
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That thought had crossed my mind too @RobG (maybe also some stay-behind guerilla type tactics) but I think the stated reasons for the regrouping were honest, and they were flagged by Surovikin quite a while back. It seems like a betrayal of the referendum result but the citizens in northern Kherson were advised very clearly of the options.
If Ukrainian armed forces are brutal in their ‘filtration’ in Kherson city that ought to be responded to strongly: those people are Russian citizens (albeit that we have to assume a proportion were lukewarm about the idea, hence their staying put). The city could become a very uncomfortable place indeed.
It concerns me if Ukrainian forces concentrate to the west, toward Nikolayev and Odessa (etc). However the preoccupation with territory is probably not the right way to look at it, those are part of Ukraine as it stands.
I think it’s a time to wait and see. An outflow of refugees into Europe is not going to be welcome, whatever the Stand With Ukraine rhetoric says, and the latter has been quite muted since Truss was defenestrated. Scheduled blackouts are probably bearable where total ‘deenergisation’ would not be. That is the next escalatory step Russia would take, it depends now on what would provoke that. Without a provocation I suspect positional/attritional skirmishes will grind on.
The major concern as I see it is the continuing bombardment of Donbas and why this is not being curtailed. That ought to be the first priority I feel.
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I agree it should be the first job - but as Brian Berletic pointed out in the video link Ukraine and NATO have spent 8 years putting together bomb-proof defensive positions throughout the border regions with Donbas and these apparently have to be taken gradually until the Ukr/nato forces can be cut off from their supplies, and only then can Russian forces deal with the artillery attacks on Donetsk.
The US Himar systems have complicated the battlefield for the Russians as these are accurate over large distances - supplies of these need to be targeted quickly too.
The 3 commentators thought that most who favour Ukraine had already left Kherson but clearly there are some who may not have co-operated with the majority in joining Russia and who stayed - if any Russian supporters stay in North West Kherson they need to rethink their personal survival!
cheers
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The last couple of spans of the main bridge connecting Kherson city to the rest of the province have been demolished as the last of the RF forces left. Apparently only armoured vehicles too far gone to be repaired have been left behind. They’ll make good film props for the Ukr propaganda studios though.
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I joined as the Warsaw pact fell apart. Because things take time to catch up, especially if you’re in a corp, I had some education on Russians and their equipment (at that time). We knew bugger all about the Caspian sea monsters (ekranoplan) and bums opened like theatre curtains at the thought of the east cost being swarmed by these things. Was and still is nothing to stop it.
The suits were actually pretty good, especially when compared to the Soviet kit (essentially a giant rubber glove). The kit wasn’t the problem, it is the absolute nightmare of being in a contaminated area. Never mind number twos, it’ll take a good 5 to 10 mins to eat a biscuit safely (?!).
I’ve tried not to think about nuclear exchange, as depending on what’s used, I may not be immediately vaporised. I do not want to survive.
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Anyone else noticed how Belarus ain’t getting a mention?
Plenty of things going on there. Why the silent running?
Mercouris has been “out in the regions” for much of this week and may have missed a few bits but here he is again (10th November) with a comprehensive and perhaps surprisingly positive view of the situation:
I just spotted this at the Duran: (but not seen it yet).
November 11, 2022
Freeze this conflict or escalate w/Garland Nixon (Live)
LocalYokel, that’s really interesting. Were you stationed in the UK or in Europe?
I agree about being vapourised; ie, an easy and quick death.
You’ve got me thinking about this now, with regard to the two world wars, where a large number did survive, yet came back home totally maimed, both physically and mentally (and of course in later wars).
Ok, I can’t resist a John Lennon song (we are coming to that time of year). I wonder why they murdered John Lennon…
KarenEliot, it is very hard to figure out what is going on here. I was talking to someone about this over dinner this evening; ie, there are still high level politicians and celebs going to Kiev to meet the coke-head tranny, whilst at the same time we are told that the evil Russkies are firing missiles and shells at Kiev.
This war has a very choreographed feel to it, quite unlike any war I’ve seen before.
And of course - big red flag - the covid bullshit was turned off like a light switch last February, and immediately the switch was thrown for the Ukraine war.
Maybe I should go live in a cave in Iceland and stop thinking about things too much…
UK. Almost all in Yorkshire too. Went to Blandford for 11 days, only to go back to Catterick. Pretty place. Yorkshire that is, not Catterick.
Thats because we’ve never seen a war like this before, at least not in modern history. Last 20+ years have been about NATO pounding everyone’s face into the sand. For about a 100 years, the yanks have been throwing some poor sod against the wall to show the size of their tackle (Carlin had this nailed).
We had proxy warfare during the cold war (EG stingers in Afghanistan via CIA), but it was nothing like the blatant participants today. The West is all but officially there.
Haven’t figured the details yet but it boils down to simply being shit or bust. If we (the collective in Ukraine) don’t win, it’s end of days. Can’t go any further without declaring war (UK has already come dangerously close to this. The Bear will knock our head clean off our shoulders), can’t pull out because failure is not an option.
Can’t even rely on political warfare. Democratic party set this up in 2014. Trump kinda messed with the schedule and also focused on China. Trump gone, back to Russia. Even if Republicans take over in 2024, poking China isn’t going to end well either (have seen videos from China preparing their people for what’s coming for several years now).
Uncharted territories
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Great piece here from Dmitry Orlov and by far the best article I’ve read on this issue by a long chalk.
Paywall but well worth a couple of quid!
Russia’s Retreat from Kherson: is it Tactical or Strategic?
Plot thickens like gravy.
FTX is being linked with Ukraine and money shenanigans for the Democratic party.
To whet your appetites;
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LocalYokel, I’m really curious to hear about your experience of being in the military - nothing judgemental here; the human condition, and all that.
You’ve very eloquently gone into the political side of things.
I fully understand if you don’t want to get into the personal side of things. If you do, though, it will help other people.
Feck, I’d rather be vapourised in lovely Yorkshire than on the German plain.
And by the way, this all directly connects to the Ukraine conflict.
It’s all about young men getting blown to bits, and totally corrupt scumbag politicians sending them to their deaths.
I’ve probably mentioned here before that my great grandfather Robert (where I get my name from), during World War 1 was tied to a gun barrel and whipped for refusing to take part in the madness.
For the record, my great grandfather did survive the war. He died shortly after from tuberculosis.
And by the by, knowing that you might be dead in the next ten minutes concentrates the mind wonderfully (in the contemporary sense).
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