Edit: broadcast at 3pm on 24th June,
Nail biting times, but it seems the coup attempt is now resolved with minimal bloodshed - Simplicius lengthy speculations and reports are very good, also including possibility it really was a Western backed coup attempt, which finally lost support from the Wagner fighters when they realised what it was. Meanwhile the G reports that, according to the piglet of Kiev:
âThe man from the Kremlin is obviously very afraid and probably hiding somewhere, not showing himself. I am sure that he is no longer in Moscow ⌠He knows what he is afraid of because he himself created this threat."
He might be talking about himself⌠cheers David.
PS in a Gite near Sisteron now⌠need to make contact with our friends in the S here, and post more thoughts in due courseâŚ
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Iâv been thinking over the last few months that something doesnât smell right about all this Prigozhin business. I was thinking yesterday that Prigozhin would have had to have gone of his head to try a stunt like this. Well perhaps he hasnât gone of his head at all. Hereâs PCRâs take on it:
The âRussian Coupâ that Wasnât
June 25, 2023
The âRussian Coupâ that Wasnât
Paul Craig Roberts
Yesterday I posted a video discussion that Larry Sparano and I had about the alleged âRussian coup.â The Russian âCoupâ that wasnât |
Looking back at our discussion, I am satisfied that we did a good job given the unresolved situation about which there was not much information. I am addressing the âcoupâ again because there is a great deal to be learned from it that is not being learned.
It is discouraging to see that the Russian media is as capable of creating false narratives and setting them in stone as Western presstitutes. The Russian media has set in stone the narrative that Prigozhin, the commander of the Wagner Group which has done most of the fighting in the liberation of Donbass, launched an âarmed rebellionâ against Putin despite the fact that there is no evidence of an armed rebellion.
The so-called âcoupâ has many curious aspects and raises many neglected questions.
I acknowledge that Prigozhin had become increasingly displeased with the Russian military command. The Kremlin had not addressed the feud between Prigozhin and the Russian military brass. The Kremlinâs failure to resolve the differences is the most likely cause of events mischaracterized as a coup. For Prigozhin, the final straw was his belief that an encampment of his troops was hit by a missile from the rear, that is, from Russia, not from Ukraine. Perhaps Prigozhin was given false information for the purpose of worsening the relations between the main fighting force and the Russian high command during a Ukrainian âcounter offensive.â Perhaps a missile strike occurred, but has a different explanation.
The situation exploded when the Russian Ministry of Defense denied Prigozhinâs accusation when the proper response would have been to send an investigatory team to establish the fact and if a missile strike did occur to determine the source.
In addition to tensions between the Wagner Group and the Russian military bureaucracy stemming from, for example, inadequate ammunition supplies at critical stages of the fighting, the Russian military bureaucracy was determined to exercise command over the Wagner Group, a demand or desire that Prigozhin would not accept. Getting rid of Prigozhin became a priority for the Russian military bureaucracy. As I illustrated in the discussion with Sparano, conspiracies against military commanders during war are commonplace, so an attack on Wagner forces designed to set Prigozhin off is a possible scenario. This possibility gains credibility from the immediate denial instead of investigation and from the instant official narrative of an âarmed rebellion.â As there was no investigation, all that Putin knows is what the generals tell him, and that will be their side of the story.
What the âarmed rebellionâ amounted to was Prigozhin starting out to Moscow with a convoy of his troops to, in Prigozhinâs words, âconfront corrupt generals.â Prigozhin announced in advance that he intended no coup.
But letâs assume he intended a coup and letâs accept the exaggerated claim by presstitutes of a convoy of 25,000 troops traveling with him on the roads to Moscow. How is a convoy of troops going to get to Moscow without being decimated by air attacks, and, should they arrive, how are 25,000 troops going to overcome the Russian Army, occupy Moscow, and establish a government?
The question that immediately jumped to my mind is: Why did Putin rush to embarrass Russia by announcing an âarmed rebellionâ unless he had no army with which to defend Moscow?
The question of the whereabouts of the Russian Army has been growing on my mind. Why, as I have repeatedly asked, has Putin, instead of using sufficient force to end the conflict, permitted it to ever-widen with increasingly provocative participation on the part of Washington and NATO? This makes no sense. It serves no Russian purpose. Why is Putin fighting a dangerous conflict not merely with Ukraine but with the West with a small private military group and Donbass militias? Where is the Russian Army? Is there one?
Or has Putin been warned by his central bank and the neoliberal Russian economists not to risk the ruble and the budget deficit by spending money on the military? Surely Russia has its own David Stockman. Has Putin been convinced that the economic threat is greater than the military threat? Has Putin decided that with his vast superiority of nuclear forces over ours he doesnât need an army? Why do Russian leaders keep warning of nuclear war if they have sufficient conventional forces?
Perhaps Putin doesnât use sufficient conventional force to end the conflict in Ukraine because he doesnât have the troops.
If this is the case, then the prospect for nuclear war is more likely than I have thought, and I already thought such a possibility was extremely high. If Western provocations finally cross a line that Putin cannot ignore and his only possible response is nuclear, Armageddon is upon us.
The unfortunate effect of the Russian government and media joining those of the West in proclaiming an âarmed rebellionâ and setting the narrative in stone is that it serves the Westâs purpose of discrediting Putin and serves the neoconservativesâ propaganda that âwe can winâ if we fully commit to the task. Clearly, no one in the Kremlin or Russian media was thinking when they joined the propaganda against themselves by endorsing the portrait of dissent in the Russian military that threatens the regime. The picture created of internal dissent plays into the hands of the West.
The danger is that now with more confidence, the West pushes harder against Russia. This is the unfortunate result of the failure of the Russian military brass to placate Prigozhin.
In the West the misunderstanding of last Saturdayâs event is total. Even normal level-headed analysts, such as Scott Ritter and Moon-of-Alabama, have contributed to the gross misunderstanding of the event. Ritter described Prigozhin as being in âVictoria Nulandâs pocketâ and working with Ukrainian intelligence cells inside Russia. Moon-of-Alabama blames the event on Putinâs use of an independent military force in Ukraine.
Perhaps the most absurd of all is the self-serving claim by unidentified âsourcesâ of âUS intelligence agenciesâ that they had advanced knowledge of Prigozhinâs âcoup.â How could they unless they were responsible for the missile strike, knowing that it would light Prigozhinâs fuse? (Even the Russian media reported this absurd claim: American Media Claim US Intelligence Learned About Prigozhin's Plans for Mutiny in Mid-June ).
I will end this essay, which I hope provokes thought and awareness of how much more dangerous the situation is now, with a final observation. If there was actually a coup attempt and Prigozhin and his Wagner Group troops constituted a danger to the Russian state as Russian leaders declared, why was the situation resolved by permitting Prigozhin refuge in Belarus and the Wagner troops to be enrolled in the Russian Army? Does this indicate that the Kremlin knows there was no coup? Or does it mean that the Kremlin lacked an army with which to confront the coup and had to come to terms with Prigozhin?
Is this the appropriate conclusion of a dangerous threat to Russian national existence?:
Something smells bad to me about the
âKremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Saturday evening that the criminal case against Prigozhin had been dropped and that he would leave for Belarus under guarantees given by Putin. The spokesman added that the members of the Wagner PMC involved in Saturdayâs events would not be prosecuted given their distinguished service during Russiaâs special military operation in Ukraine.â
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Alexander Mercourisâs view on this bizarre story. He covers a lot of ground in this video and itâs well worth watching if you have the time. (56 minutes).
Prigozhin Uprise Collapses, Putin in Control, Prigozhin Agrees to Exile in Belarus, Wagner Under MoD
25th June
Havenât watched the video yet but Mercouris seems to me to either have a permanent cold or has been sniffing too much coke. I like his analyses but find them hard to watch
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Hi @Rich , fwiw, I think PCR has lost it here - afaik the Russian economy is actually growing compared to the US and Europe which is in recession, the Russian army has been covering the whole of the South, Donetsk and the North whilst the Wagners were in Bakhmut ( where does PCR get this guesswork from?) - this is well documented by all the sites I have been on.
It seems pretty clear that the Wagners have a high standing in Russian public opinion so any military action against them would be a lose lose situation for Putin - air attacks against Wagners could have been loose canons from Russian locals.
So to avoid a major catastrophe Putin was dead right to stop the Wagners in their tracks by his diplomacy - who wins from a civil war?
If it was a false flag then maybe it was a way to expose the Bellorussian insurgent movement - which it apparently did - we will never know.
I have issues with Mercourisâ presentations and his stuff is usually pure opinion, imo 
- but I will try and get to it soon.
cheers
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Seems to me the one thing we will all agree on is that we need to âkeep an open mindâ h/t @RhisiartGwilym
It seems that even Putins speech could be a psy op with the graphics and voice tech available. Mercouris, like PCR, is not there so their analyses, however reliable it has been in the past, could be completely wrong.
The only thing Iâm certain of is that Prigozhin has been itching for a fight and not only with the Ukies. Is he just building up his image for his own purposes, or perhaps he has had some western offer? Any thoughts?
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Now desperately trying to erase that mental imageâŚ
That purile chuckle aside, I canât listen to him for than a few minutes. His voice drives me potty. But thatâs my problem, not his.
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Sorry. Should really proof read before hittihg reply
I havenât watched the Alexander Mercouris video yet either, but would be very surprised if Mark Wauck doesnât transcribe the key points on his SubStack (Meaning In History). So I will head there shortly. He (Wauck) published at least a half-dozen updates over the weekend. During Saturday, like a lot of people I suspect, I read some really wild claims mainly on Telegram and Twitter. Iâve no idea what was really going on but I will second @CJ1 in his comment above re Paul Craig Roberts who is sawing at a branch that he is sitting astride. What rot.
How, for example, can he attach any credence at all to the story about a missile attack on the Wagner encampment which supposedly triggered this whole thing? I have seen more convincing scenes of chaos at the end of a Boy Scouts jamboree than in the video, which I saw replicated just about everywhere last Friday-Saturday, supposedly showing the âcarnageâ of the âmissile attackâ on Wagner. (The Scouts are usually better at building fires and at putting them out again afterwards.)
A great deal of the rest of the footage was laughable maskirova, or western propaganda, or a bit of both. Bits of motorway being dug up, maps with lots of no entry signs showing how Moscow had been secured⌠for what? The Wagner theatre troupe was only in Rostov-on-Don, and not in massive numbers. I am dubious there was any convoy heading to Moscow unless perhaps some folks had got wind of a Theodor Bastard concert. (This is a real Russian band by the way, but from St Petersburg I think.)
The aftermath, on Sunday, I paid no attention to, mainly because a group of us went to a Thod Pha Pa festival at Chithurst. A day away from all the hyperbole was refreshing.
Pat, paraphrasing Rhis, hits the nail on the head I think. None of this is to scorn the postings by fellow Board members, theyâre all worth chucking into the crucible and thank you for doing so.
This is one occasion when I really wish you hadnât edited the original
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UK Column has done an exceptional analysis, with some assumptions, which is contrary to Mercouris and PCR who has been completely demolished by @KarenEliot .
I wonât try and break it down as there is a lot to consider, however, you can see a brief summary on Vanessa Beeleyâs substack here
Am I the only one seeing some parallels between this musical affair and the Moscow apartment bombings in 1999?
Hereâs the Corbett Report interviewing Rolo Slavski (pseudonym)
Any opinions on this guy?
Heâs pro russian but sees Putin as weak, and proven weak by the lack of punishment for Wagner who challenged the Russsian Stateâs âmonopoly of violenceâ and lived to tell the taleâŚ
That was really interesting! Thanks for posting.
Iâm still catching up here and thanks Ev for the most convincing version of the Prigozhin story IMO, But no mention of VBâs Syrian angle. I canât believe that the timing of the Russian attacks in Syria are coincidence?
Edit: Iâve assumed that Slaviskyâs story about Shoiguâs corruption is true. It could of course be exaggerated or complete bollocks. I wasnât comfortable with his views on Scott Ritter.
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Slavski is dodgy, no doubt about it!
However if you read MoA and Pepe Gonzalez and others of the same mindset youâll find they REALLY play down or ignore the fact that Wagner shot down Russian aircraft and killed Russian Air Force pilots and personnel and so far they seemed to have gotten away with it. How in the world does that translate into âPutin is Strongâ? Iâm not saying heâs not got the domestic Russian state under control, nor am I saying heâs not clearly âwinningâ in Ukraine and seemingly elsewhere in the world in terms of Russian influence.
But that salient fact that Russian soldiers were murdered and the murderers were not punished makes me doubt the pro Putin narrativesâŚ
Morning Eman, I thought this was pretty good from Scott Ritter, being interviewed here by Judge Napolitano:
He mentioned the Russian airmen who were killed and he used the word âmurderâ and mentioned the lack of punishment.
Then they simply âforgotâ to analyze the implications of lack of punishment. He did say it will come in one way or another in the future.
They âforgotâ to talk about what it meant that Wagner had anti aircraft systems in place to protect their column.
Would Ritter really slide around the facts in this way if Blackwater rogues, coming up I 95 from Florida, had killed 15 USA Marines in Richmond, VA and then NOT BEEN PUNISHED?
What does it mean when a State does not punish the murderers of State soldiers?
Ritter is slick, he spins a direct challenge to the Russian stateâs monopoly on violence, a challenge that was not punished, into a narrative that âPutin is strongâ. I donât doubt that Putin is in a strong position, but it seems odd to say of the murderous unpunished insurrection that itâs only an âembarrassmentâ.
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Bigger fish to fry sadly.
Hopefully the compo offered by Priggy (ÂŁ5 million roughly) will be for each one killed and not a pot. I should imagine some behind the scenes state help for the families too.
What would happen here in the UK with this scenario? Existential war against essentially a gang. Then a sudden coup attempt.
I think similar would happen. Terrible loss, but what if they didnât stop? What of the losses then? Publicly, go for the âI did great sorting thisâ media spin.
Privately, start looking at those military officers who are VIPs with Wagner. Find out just where and what that MoD money has been going on (Wagner provides catering amongst other things).
Lastly, this is comparing apples to oranges. Russians arenât American and vice versa. Moscow apartment bombings are an example of the Russian way. Itâll just disappear. You can be sure that somewhere, someone is getting a boot up their arse. But not in public.