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Vaccines in Scotland - a clever FoI request, something to chew over

F.O.I Request shows 2,207 died within 28 days of having the Covid Vaccine in Scotland during February

Assuming this is correct, a blog post I saw (and just accidentally deleted) posed the following calculation:

Scotland has an annual death rate of 1.2% (about right, but don’t have the exact figure)
These people died 28 days after the vaccine (assume 1st - no of 2nd is negligible anyway)
According to the average, the proportion of people who would normally have died in that 28 day period is 1.2%.
There were about 1.5 million 1st doses in the period between the start of the rollout (20 Dec) to the date stipulated on the FoI response (26 Feb).
So, expect about 1.2% times 1.5 million, then divided by 12 for the 28-day window counted
= 18000 divided by 12, or 1500 deaths.

Instead there were 2200 deaths in these vaccinated people.

A couple of amendments.
More people die in winter maybe 20%?
(Excess winter mortality in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics)

Also, 28 days is not a month but a thirteenth of a year.
Amended guesstimate for the number of deaths expected :

18000 times 1.2 (for the winter adjustment) divided by 13 (instead of my 12)
=1660 deaths

Instead, 2200 deaths were recorded in those vaccinated in the period.

A final amendment: the number of people vaccinated was 15.4 million (I lied again, to keep it readable :slightly_smiling_face: ) not 15 million but that takes the total expected deaths to about 1700.
The 2200 gives a roundish 500 extra deaths.

Valid?

Meanwhile, south of the border the same request in March (deaths within 28 days of vaccination) was denied by ONS on the grounds that there was a view to publishing the data in the future. The questioner was referred to a Release Schedule.

I hope this questioner didn’t hold their breath for up to 28 days, because a month later another almost identical request was told:

“Unfortunately, we do not hold analysis showing deaths from all causes within 28 days of having the COVID-19 vaccine.”

It’s an interesting answer. Firstly for it’s slight defensiveness - no ‘analysis’ was needed, the Scottish FOI answer was just the number, which was all the questioner requested.

But then also the change of tune. The ONS is a competent, professional body IMO. If they didn’t have the data (why wouldn’t they, Scotland did) I doubt they would have told the first questioner they were thinking of publishing it!
ED

(Response to first letter)
Deaths for any reason within 28 days of the COVID-19 vaccine

Release date:

19 March 2021

You asked

​How many people have died for any reason, within 28 days of being administered, any vaccine related to sars-cov-2 (covid-19) in England & Wales since vaccinations began.

We said

​Thank you for your enquiry.

We have data for England vaccinations and are in the process of developing our analytical plans. Once we have finalised these plans a publication date will be released on our Release Calendar.

As such, the information you have requested is considered exempt under Section 22(1) of the Freedom of Information Act 2000, whereby information is exempt from release if there is a view to publish the information in the future. Furthermore, as a central government department and producer of official statistics, we need to have the freedom to be able to determine our own publication timetables. This is to allow us to deal with the necessary preparation, administration and context of publications. It would be unreasonable to consider disclosure when to do so would undermine our functions.

This exemption is subject to a public interest test. We recognise the desirability of information being freely available and this is considered by ONS when publication schedules are set in accordance with the Code of Practice for Statistics. The need for timely data must be balanced against the practicalities of applying statistical skill and judgement to produce the high quality, assured data needed to inform decision-making. If this balance is incorrectly applied, then we run the risk of decisions being based on inaccurate data which is arguably not in the public interest. This will have an impact on public trust in official statistics in a time when accuracy of official statistics is more important to the public than ever before.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsforanyreasonwithin28daysofthecovid19vaccine

(Response to second letter)
Deaths of all causes within 28 days of receiving the COVID-19 vaccine

Release date:

20 April 2021

You asked

​Do you have statistics for deaths of all causes within 28 days of having the COVID-19 vaccine?

We said

Thank you for your request.

Unfortunately, we do not hold analysis showing deaths from all causes within 28 days of having the COVID-19 vaccine.

In case it is of interest, we hold vaccination data for England and we are currently developing our analytical plans with an intention to publish statistics on vaccination effectiveness soon. Once we have finalised these plans a publication date will be announced on our Release Calendar.

Also, all cause deaths and deaths involving COVID-19 are published in our weekly deaths dataset, which may be of interest. This data set is updated every Tuesday.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsofallcauseswithin28daysofreceivingthecovid19vaccine

“The ONS is a competent, professional body IMO” - which may or may not have been got at to feed a false narrative (as so much else has been). And of course we don’t know which of those states is so. So what price trustworthy accuracy…? Even if they’ll give us the bloody information to start with.

The simplest way to control the narrative is pushing down from the top, as leaders make most of the public pronouncements. The more democratic FOI system in the underbelly is probably seen as a bit of a hazard. Interesting that the kybosh wasn’t applied in Scotland.