5 Filters

UN report on replacement migration

https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm_200010_un_2001_replacementmigration.pdf

Oh boy does this fill in some blanks. Am wondering how many would still be pro immigration after reading this? 179 pages long and not an easy read (for me at least).

To whet your appetite;

(Page 69 on UK and Ireland)

Scenario V
Scenario V keeps the potential support ratio at its 1995 level of 4.09. Keeping this ratio would require 59.8 million migrants between 1995 and 2050, slightly more than one million migrants a year on average. The overall population would reach 136 million in 2050, of which 80 million (59 per cent) would be post-1995 migrants or their descendants.
ā€¦
Net migration in the United Kingdom amounted to 660,000 persons between 1990 and 1998, an average of 73,000 persons per year. In 1990, the proportion of the total population who were foreign-born was 6.5 per cent. This is comparable to the numbers needed to keeping the total population constant, 88,000 migrants per year, and to the proportion of the total population in 2050 who would be post-1995 migrants or their descendants, 5.5 per cent. However, the numbers of migrants needed to keep the population in working-age constant are about twice the level of the past decade. Figure IV.16 shows, for scenarios I, II, III and IV, the population of the United Kingdom in 2050, indicating the share that are post-1995 migrants and their descendants. Scenario V, keeping the potential support ratio constant, would demand more than one million immigrants annually. This would greatly exceed immigration rates that the country experienced in the past. In absence of migration, the figures show that it would be necessary to raise the upper limit of the working-age to about 72 years in order to obtain in 2050 the same potential support ratio observed in 1995 in the United Kingdom, i.e. 4.1 persons of working-age per each older person past working-age.

Anyone want to imagine Britain 2040?

1 Like

Wow. I canā€™t quite see that making a convincing policy proposal: let in more migrants or weā€™ll keep pushing back the retirement age.

Even if we assume the incoming folks donā€™t get to live to pensionable age, or not in the UK at any rateā€¦ which sounds reminiscent of the Labour Laws that directly led to apartheid. Let folks in to work but keep them in hostelsā€¦ should they dare reproduce the offspring get to be British even if mum/dad donā€™t. Great recipe for a cohesive society.

The perennial problem remains that lots of people ā€œof working ageā€ in the context of static or falling availability of decently paid jobs inevitably leads to hordes of embittered families on the scrapheap. And a ready-made pool of easily identifiable ā€˜othersā€™ to blame for it.

1 Like