Will Wales become independent before Scotland? I raise my glass to your shamanic powers @RhisiartGwilym
Tom Newton Dunn
Cabinet ministers fear that the Cardiff government will insist on holding a Welsh independence referendum if Labour loses power in May’s elections.
The most likely outcome of the May 6 poll is a three-way split between Labour, the Tories and Plaid Cymru, with no party getting close enough to a majority of 60 seats.
Plaid Cymru disclosed on Times Radio yesterday that a referendum for Wales to split away from the UK will be central to its election campaign. Adam Price, the Welsh nationalist party’s leader, ruled out governing with the Tories in Wales. He is expected to insist on a vote for independence as his price to prop up a minority Labour government in Cardiff.
Senior Tories believe that Mark Drakeford, the Labour leader, will accept the demand as the only way to hold onto power. The issue has been discussed at cabinet level recently. The scenario leaves the UK government facing the prospect of two simultaneous demands for independence referendums. One senior minister told The Times: “The electoral maths could well mean the only way Drakeford and Labour cling on to power is by reluctantly agreeing to a referendum. If Plaid insist on it, it’s going to be the only way they can govern with any working majority.”
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has made clear that she will use the Holyrood elections on the same date as a mandate for a second independence referendum.
Support for Welsh independence has tripled in eight years. In 2013, 10 per cent of the population supported it, but a poll by Savanta ComRes for ITV News this month found that 39 per cent of Welsh people would vote “yes” — the highest support for it so far.
Speaking on Times Radio yesterday Price said: “We’ll be promising a clear timetable and a referendum on independence within the first term. That reflects an incredible surge of support for independence over many years. Politics in Wales is moving.”
Pushed on whether he would accept the Plaid demand, Drakeford told The Andrew Marr Show on BBC1 yesterday: “If a party that proposes such a referendum wins an election, then of course such a referendum should be held.”
Drakeford admitted that his party faced a battle to keep hold of power in Cardiff. A recent survey found that 51 per cent of Labour Party members in Wales back independence.