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The 3 uncertainties in US Covid

Cases, Deaths and Texas :confused:

Texas is reopening - highly controversially, it seems

Many US states’ figures have been falling - but not Texas’s.
According to narrative, this will drive cases and deaths back up there. Article says this happened last time.

We watch with interest…a quick look at some US data.

Gradients refer to the ratio of successive weekly totals, but the cols of interest are the penultimate and the one preceding, which show recent cases and deaths per million (averaged over the weekly period).
The data are sorted according to the weekly rate of deaths ie the penultimate column.
Ignoring Virginia (who added a large number of old backlog deaths during the week) the daily deaths per milllion column (averaged over the week) showed 8 states in double figures - this week there were probably none in double figures. This general fall among the states with the worst recent figures caused Texas to shoot up from outside the ‘top 20’ to fifth worst, despite fairly similar average deaths and cases both weeks.
So according to convention many other states were better placed than Texas to open up for business. But Governor Abbott is having none of it!
Some states are easing in places - like ‘top’ placed California who also shot up to the top due to their death rates standing still, but who can at least point to falling cases.

For some unbiased truth about US death rates, perhaps watch the Dr Zack Bush interview posted by @RhisiartGwilym on another thread. There are some real eye openers, especially for the more scientific minds not just looking at numbers but looking at causes behind the numbers. His analysis includes some interesting facts about CHina and Italy I have not heard before in this whole discussion.

Thanks PatB, it’s on the watch-list.