Cases, Deaths and Texas
Texas is reopening - highly controversially, it seems
Many US states’ figures have been falling - but not Texas’s.
According to narrative, this will drive cases and deaths back up there. Article says this happened last time.
We watch with interest…a quick look at some US data.
Gradients refer to the ratio of successive weekly totals, but the cols of interest are the penultimate and the one preceding, which show recent cases and deaths per million (averaged over the weekly period).
The data are sorted according to the weekly rate of deaths ie the penultimate column.
Ignoring Virginia (who added a large number of old backlog deaths during the week) the daily deaths per milllion column (averaged over the week) showed 8 states in double figures - this week there were probably none in double figures. This general fall among the states with the worst recent figures caused Texas to shoot up from outside the ‘top 20’ to fifth worst, despite fairly similar average deaths and cases both weeks.
So according to convention many other states were better placed than Texas to open up for business. But Governor Abbott is having none of it!
Some states are easing in places - like ‘top’ placed California who also shot up to the top due to their death rates standing still, but who can at least point to falling cases.