Interesting analysis from Simplicius the thinker
It still all feels too chaotic to me to understand what on earth will result from all of this…
We wait and see
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PCR’s take on it all:
PCR not on his best form here, IMO. He seems to have no take on a large part of the conflict compared with e.g. Crooke and Simplicius.
cheers
I agree completely, however, some things are pretty clear.
a) Syria will be carved up like Yugoslavia was. The Golan Heights and some surrounding areas will now be completely annexed by the Zionist entity.
b) Turkey will annex the disputed territory of Kurdistan, and Erdogan will probably try and extend that annexation as far as he possibly can.
c) The head choppers of HTS and their many waring factions will end up carving up the rest between them and like Libya, will become a haven for human trafficking, while the population will come to regret the fall of Assad with Christians and other minorities being slaughtered.
d) The Zionist entity will continue to get their cheap oil from the Idlib area, probably by a direct route rather than via Turkey.
e) The ‘west’, that is western Europe, will have another major influx of refugees and guys like Nigel Farage will have a field day condemning the inaction to stop the flow, while of course USUKisnato was responsible for it all.
f) [late edit]. One of the oldest civilisations on earth who had millions of tourists every year to see the sights will have all their artifacts either stolen, or completely destroyed and we have already seen the start of this.
As usual, I qualify this as just my opinion (My sister tells me, my opinion is never humble)
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I hope you’re right CJ.
I’m still at the “wait and see” stage in all of this and I’ve not yet looked at your Simplicius post, which is next on my list BTW. Anyway, here’s an interesting view from Alex Krainer that’s diametrically opposed to PCR’s take.
Did Russia Just Set a HUGE Trap in Syria? | Alex Krainer
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Way too much happened and way too quickly but my tentative read is that Russia and Iran did a deal with Turkey and that there is a lot more turmoil to come before the real shape of things is clearer. (I will ask my barber his opinion, he is a Kurd. The outlook for his people does not look much better than it does for the Palestinians, tragically.)
Meanwhile every pompous dingbat from here to Cairo is prefacing their hot takes with crowing about the downfall of the “barbarous” Assad. I’m sure he’s happier out of harms way and has personal issues to face (his wife is gravely ill I believe).
More from Alistair Crooke , here with Chris Hedges:
Very detailed analysis.
Cheers
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Hi @CJ1 I agree that there is a lot there to disagree with. However, the one thing he said struck a chord with me. That was his comment about Iran showing they could avoid Israehells Iron dome but without hitting anything. If the Iranians really are part of the axis of resistance, they should have long ago taken out every Israeli airfield, preventing heavy bombing of Gaza and limiting the ongoing genocide. Had they done this, the entire Middle East might just look a little different now.
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Pezeshkian may be the problem :
cheers
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This was a great discussion between two people who really know what they are talking about. Thanks for sharing @CJ1
According to Crooke, the tensions at play mean that this is just the beginning of the opera. He also says that Erdogan is already losing control over his proxies.
The new management also seems quite ok with Russia remaining in the area, although what the Russians think they are getting out of this is far from clear to me…
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Beirut in the 80s was a dangerous place. During this time, a low level Russian diplomat was kidnapped and killed. Likely tortured. The Russians found the perpetrators, smashed their balls with hammers and dropped them off at their HQ. No Russian was ever harassed in Lebanon from that day.
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Here’s another comment on Pezeshkian from Mark Sleboda around 25 minutes in :
cheers
12th December 2024
Dmitry Orlov: The Collapse of the Arab World? Defeat for Russia and Iran? (NO paywall)
Hey Local,
Yes, I remember that!
Edit: And wasn’t that also around the time Terry Waite was taken as a hostage?
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I believe it was a year or so beforehand.
I find the whole situation is just unbelievably sad. That said, I agree with @CJ1 that Pezeshkian seems to be moving to the Saudi position of accommodation with Israehell. From all the informed observers, it seems that Assad was going that way too. Is there a lesson here?
What amazes me with all the informed observers miss, what I consider to be an elephant in the room. Syria had a national bank. Countries with a national (state owned bank) can never run out of money. Unfortunately, Assad was not astute enough to use that for his military.
I also disagree with Sleboda’s analysis that Trump will impose more sanctions on Iran and that will be the end of them. Iran too, has a national bank. If they use sanctions as the Russians clearly have done, to build their industrial base, not just the military arm, sanctions could well be almost a blessing to Iran’s survival. Of course, that is if Pezeshkian allows it.
There is so much to comment on and debate rather than just sit and watch in horror. I know this is not the raison detre of 5F, but what do others think?
Fascinating and brilliant conversation with Brian Berletic and Danny Haiphong. It is about events in Syria (the latest act in a long line of deliberate destruction by Empire) but more-so the bigger picture of the continuing battle between Empire and the multipola world. (I think the title is a bit misleading BTW).
109 minutes and worth every minute IMO.
Brian Berletic: Putin Sets DEVASTATING Trap for NATO, Ukraine Collapses as Syria Explodes
A bit of straight talking from the British Syrian journo Richard Medhurst covering not why, but what is actually happening.
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Indeed a very good interview. However, they both make the same mistake as many other western commentators do. That is they believe Russia’s foreign policy works the same way as USukisnato.
That is to say when operating outside of Russian borders, the ruskies only occupy and or fight at the behest of the country they are in, and the decisions of that sovereign state are treated as paramount. The contrast to USuk, in incontrovertible. They occupy, subvert, and if necessary fight “on behalf” of the “rebels”.
On that basis, any assumption that the Syrian situation is a defeat for Russia is wrong. It may well increase the western threat to Russia, but it was not their defeat.
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Empire is free to go ahead and sell things in a way that seems advantageous, I suppose. The big problem though is that they believe their own propaganda.
The US-disguised-as-Ukraine schtick is petering out. It has been hard for them. The US-disguised-as-Israel op is going quite a bit better.
It’s not like their aim is to “win” anything particularly, just to create enduring chaos and an environment where shady people can steal whatever they want. Probably Ukraine will get to keep enough stuff, land, in the right parts most capable of reaching accommodations with the carrion birds demanding their aid packages be repaid.
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