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No excess mortality - really?

Continuing the discussion from This seems like a good summary of the denialist case:

Bumping out a new thread on Dr Reiner Fuellmich’s Crimes Against Humanity video. I’ve started watching it (late as usual) but I have to say that it is completely unconvincing to me. I’ve counted maybe 2 or 3 times (maybe more) in the first 15 minutes where he says there was no excess mortality due to coronavirus.

I call nonsense on that statement. Politely, of course :wink:

How many ER or ICU doctors did he interview to get to this conclusion? Mortality curves across the EU and the US show a distinct and pronounced surge in mortality. Eyewitness accounts from hospitals in Italy, Spain, USA, and our old friend Dan in London flatly contradict this statement. His source for this - stanford prof ioannidis - has already been caught out fiddling his major study (now pulled in disgrace) on antibodies. Honestly.

If the starting point is the claim that there is zero excess mortality then this guy goes straight into the bin as far as I’m concerned.

Does it get any better than this? Not sure I can be bothered to keep going…

Cheers
PP

I agree, PP - a claim that there was no excess mortality seems quite wild - I put it down to something being ‘lost in translation’…perhaps? Maybe he meant nothing beyond that which one might expect from the circulation of any virus, ‘novel’ or otherwise. He certainly acknowledges the notion of covid deaths, but problematises them in view of suspicious prevention of autopsies, and the peculiar registration of deaths as covid deaths when other, more ready, explanations were at hand, such as co-morbidities or ‘gun-shot wounds’. I lifted the relevant section from the pdf in order to facilitate a fuller discussion of the fellow’s claims around this matter should anybody wish to get involved - I’ve highlighted some key points wrt to PP’s concern:

Now, let’s take a look at the current actual situation regarding the virus’s danger, the complete uselessness of PCR tests for the detection of infections, and the lockdowns based on nonexistent existant infections. In the meantime, we know that the health care systems were never in danger of becoming overwhelmed by covid- 19. On the contrary, many hospitals remain empty to this day and some are now facing bankruptcy. The hospital Ship Comfort, which anchored in New York at the time and could have accommodated a thousand patients, never accommodated more than some 20 patients. No where was there any excess mortality. Studies carried out by Professor Ioannidis and others have shown that the mortality of Corona is equivalent to that of the seasonal flu.

Even the pictures from Bergamo and New York that were used to demonstrate to the world that panic was in order proved to be deliberately, misleading. Then the so- called panic paper was leaked, which was written by the German Department of the Interior. Its classified content shows beyond a shadow of a doubt that in fact the population was deliberately driven to panic by politicians and mainstream media. The accompanying irresponsible statements of the head of the RKI, remember the CDC, Mr. Wieler, who repeatedly and excitedly announced that the Corona measures must be followed unconditionally by the population without them asking any question shows that the that he followed the script verbatim. In his public statements, he kept announcing that the situation was very grave and threatening, although the figures compiled by his own institute proved the exact opposite. Among other things, the panic paper calls for children to be made to feel responsible, and I quote, for the painful, tortured death of their parents and grandparents if they do not follow the Corona rules, that is, if they do not wash their hands constantly and don’t stay away from their grandparents.

A word of clarification. In Bergamo, the vast majority of death, 94 percent, to be exact, turned out to be the result not of covid-19, but rather the consequence of the government deciding to transfer sick patients (sick was probably the cold or seasonal flu) from hospitals to nursing homes in order to make room at the hospitals for all the covid patients who ultimately never arrived. There at the nursing homes, they then infected old people with a severely weakened immune system, usually as a result of pre-existing medical conditions. In addition, a flu vaccination which had previously been administered, had further weakened the immune systems of the people in the nursing homes. In New York, only some, but by far not all hospitals were overwhelmed. Many people, most of whom were again elderly and had serious pre- existing medical conditions and most of whom had it not been for the panic mongering, would have just stayed at home to recover, raced to the hospitals. There, many of them fell victim to health care, associated infections or nosocomial infections on the one hand, and incidents of malpractice on the other hand, for example, by being put on a respirator rather than receiving oxygen through an oxygen mask.

Again, to clarify covid-19 this is the current state of affairs is a dangerous disease, just like the seasonal flu is a dangerous disease. And of course, covid-19, just like the seasonal flu, may sometimes take a severe clinical course and will sometimes kill patients. However, as autopsies have shown, which were carried out in Germany, in particular by the forensic scientist, Professor Klaus Püschel in Hamburg, the fatalities

he examined had almost all been caused by serious pre-existing conditions. And almost all of the people who had died had died at the very at a very old age, just like in Italy. Meaning, they had lived beyond their average life expectancy. In this context, the following should also be mentioned. The German RKI, that is again the equivalent of the CDC, had initially, strangely enough, recommended that no autopsies be performed. And there are numerous credible reports that doctors and hospitals worldwide had been paid money for declaring a deceased person a victim of covid-19 rather than writing down the true cause of death on the death certificate, for example, a heart attack or a gunshot wound. Without the autopsies, we would never know that the overwhelming majority of the alleged covid-19 victims had died of completely different diseases, but not of covid-19. The assertion that the lockdown was necessary because there were so many different infections with sars-cov-2 and because the health care systems would be overwhelmed is wrong for three reasons as we have learned from the hearings we conducted with the Corona committee and from other data that has become available in the meantime:

At any rate, I persevered with the whole thing and picked-up some useful info - - fascinating to hear about the Drosten character - he’s your German equivalent of Ferguson, isn’t he - does anybody know of similar scaremongering counterparts in other countries?

BW
Si

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Thanks a lot @SiSi - very helpful. I’ll have a proper read through and see if I was jumping to unwarranted conclusions.

Cheers
PP

P, have a look at Kit Knightly’s latest comment, about a WHO statement that he - Kit - sees as letting the no-severely-lethal-pandemic cat out of the bag. I still think that this question of ‘how many have died of it, or will die of it’ is far from clearly answered. Still obliged by the legion uncertainties to stay for the time being in w&s mode:

https://off-guardian.org/2020/10/08/who-accidentally-confirms-covid-is-no-more-dangerous-than-flu/

PS: The same scepticism applies to how much of an uptick in - genuine - covid deaths is now happening, and whether this is any higher than the usual rise that appears with Autumn weather.

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thanks RG

I had a quick scan (I’ll have a proper read later) but I would be extremely surprised if the IFR turns out to be 0.14%. Let’s think about it for a sec:

We have had something like 50K deaths in this country. If the mortality was 0.14% that means

total infected = 50,000 / 0.0014 = 35,714,285 cases in the UK

35 million people in the UK? And yet the positive test ratio is in low single digits… This just doesn’t seem possible to me.

That doesn’t mean that with proper protections etc the IFR can’t be reduced. Clearly it can be. In Tokyo (to pull a recent example) the IFR is tiny. That’s most likely partly due to the universal mask wearing in Japan reducing the inoculum and leading to herd immunity through the back door.

As you say, it’s a complex and evolving picture.

Cheers
PP

Well, I loath the masks, and only ever use a piss-take bandana myself. But your idea of reducing total inoculum may well prove true, and oblige me to change tack about masks. W&s! :slight_smile:

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lol :slight_smile:

the truth will out in the end my friend, one way or t’other. Whether the masks do anything or just protect us from facial recognition and chronic hallitosis

:wink:

Si

thanks for the cut and paste job. I’ve jotted down a few thoughts, reading through it.

In London, at least, we know that the hospitals almost ran out of oxygen as there were so many patients on oxygen. They had to bump up their ICU capacity many multiples - whole wards, OR’s and the like were converted into makeshift ICU’s. That has never happened before in my lifetime. In Italy, they were having to make decisions to leave the elderly to die on beds in overflowing hallways in order to treat younger patients with a higher chance of recovery. The same calculation was true (if I remember) in some hospitals in Wales. I’ve never heard of that before either. There are many such examples across the world.

One strange thing, that we can say is that this was not uniform across the whole country. There were hotspots, and there were places that were eerily quiet. But many doctors in the UK are still recovering from the stress of the first wave.

I’m not sure how much I trust Ioannidis. His confident prediction was less than 10,000 deaths in the US. At least an order or magnitude off, and still climbing. His study into seroprevalence was so bad that other statisticians actually publicly called for an apology. He has since withdrawn it. Having said that, however, his early estimate of maybe 0.3% IFR (10x less than initial estimates) could well turn out to be correct. Credit where it’s due. Incidentally, an IFR of 0.3% would be as bad as the spanish flu, and a heck of a lot worse than a regular flu year.

Is this right? I wonder what the source for this is…? Is he suggesting that Bergamo had an absolutely massive wave of colds and 'flu this year but no Covid? Surely doctors who look at lung x-rays know the difference between a cold, and the ground glass opacity in the lungs caused by Covid? This statement seems pretty extraordinary to me, and I’d like to dig into it a little deeper. I’ll have a look at the pdf and see if I can get a source for that.

Again, I wonder what the source for this is. And again, I guess I’m struggling with the language a bit. Is he saying that a lot of old people with covid should have stayed at home and recovered, rather than rushing to the hospital and being killed? Or just regular people who didnt have covid got nervous and rushed to hospital? I don’t really know how to judge this statement at all.

To be fair, on his other point, I think it’s true that we have learned that it’s not a good course of action to put a covid patient on a ventilator. But I’m not a doctor so I can’t really say when someone should be on a ventilator or not. I think they use them much less now. It could well be true that many people died because the treatment protocol was incorrect.

The mortality curves (ironically the thing that made me start this thread) show that in countries that were not able to contain it, the mortality was many many times higher this year than any flu year in recent memory at least.

I’m never really sure what to make of this argument. It’s come up a few times on this board in the last few weeks. If we know that elderly people are most vulnerable, and a lot of elderly people die, then what conclusion do we draw from that? If you’ve lived beyond your life expectancy then we don’t have to worry about you? Seems a tad Logan’s run. Similarly for people with comorbidites. If we know that obese people or diabetics are more likely to die from Covid, and then lots of obese people and diabetics go on to die, do we just write em off as a bad lot? I’m never sure what conclusion we are being led to here…

Weird. I wonder if they have been questioned about that? Particularly strange in Germany as they have one of the lowest Covid death tolls in Europe - 115 per 1 million pop. I would have expected them to be proud of the lack of deaths… Perhaps autopsies might have shown way more covid deaths than officially claimed :wink:

Yeah - I’ve heard this before. Not seen a whole bunch of evidence though. Even if there are a lot of such fake cases, then do we really believe that this year had a huge number of extra heart attacks and shoot-outs, to account for the massive spike in mortality? However we try and slice it, something caused a serious bunch of (mainly old and already compromised) people to die. I would be pretty surprised if there were a whole of lot gunshot wounds and heart-attacks in the UK just as the coronavirus pandemic was spreading around the world.

Right. That’s more than enough waffling from me! I do seriously appreciate you taking the time to cut and paste the pieces from the transcript, Si. There are definitely odd things that could use a closer look, and weird things that don’t really add up, but I have to say that overall I’m not convinced by this opening statement from Dr Reiner Fuellmich. Perhaps he has amassed a serious mountain of evidence, and testimony that he will start to produce if a trial were to begin, and if so, then I remain completely open to having my mind changed.

Cheers mate
PP

So having scanned through the PDF looking for some supporting refs, I notice that it seems he has no references to any of the points he is claiming.

That’s also quite disappointing from someone trying to argue a legal case…

I just don’t find his arguments convincing and his lack of sources or references is not helping his case…

Cheers
PP

EDIT: It’s possible that the transcript was auto-generated, so no refs. Does anyone know if he has produced any references to support his statements?

I’m sure there are references in the legal submission. Maybe he wanted to withhold the ammunition from the adversaries until court time.I’d understand that, though it then doesn’t empower his sympathizers much!

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you could be right… but that leaves the question open as to how are we to judge the veracity of any of his statements? So far, most of the discussion of mortality, for example, looks completely false to me…

PP

I think Covid-19 questions have more dimensions than are usually discussed. Excess mortality will be far higher in the countries that have had outsized death rates. I’m not sure where the case will be brought but I think Germany isn’t one of them. There’s also the question of the time frame. Even in the UK the difference between the population death rates from Covid-19 and the flu has narrowed as the Covid-19 death rates came down from the high peaks of the spring (so that comparison could reappear too), so if we’re talking about present government actions, the claim that there is no excess mortality at present to justify them makes more sense. In fact, in the UK the weekly excess deaths didn’t seem to be exceeding the five-year average when I looked a week ago. Admittedly, the Covid-19 deaths in the UK are on the rise again now for sure, but not enough to show in excess deaths yet.

For sure? How do you know E?

Hi which dodgy claim of mine do you mean? :smiley:
How was the protest - good on yer!

The idea that deaths - specifically from covid - are on the rise.

The tree-defenders’ camp continues to hold the copse we’re occupying. And this geriatric dickhead (me!) is astonished - I shouldn’t be, of course - about how intensely battering it is just to sit about doing nothing for hours - but out in the October chill. I’m home now, and feeling half dead! :slight_smile: Back again tomorrow if I can stagger onto my bike saddle. Made a really nice acquaintance with one of the orange-suited workers on the HS job, bloke from Albania, who - of course - is just trying to keep his family afloat, and doesn’t particularly like what he has to do, but is terrified of joblessness. He likes the way he keeps seeing me cycle past each morning on my way to the camp. “Good way for old man, like my father, to keep fit” he opines. Also agrees that I shouldn’t have lec-assist on my bike as “It make you lazy; I tell my dad that!” :slight_smile:

Big demo here against the vandals, with lots of people, and the local - Labour - MP undertaking to get up in Paedominster and insist that the whole HS2 lunacy needs to be re-considered. The horrendous white-elephant reality of it continues to spread through peoples’ realisations. That could well be what stops it eventually.

Apropos my question above, please see the post I’m about to make (below), with Dr. Andrew Kaufman video… Cheers E! :slight_smile:

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Folks, please take a look at this 44min. video with Dr. Andrew Kaufman and David Icke in conversation…

Whoa, whoa, whoa! Don’t turn your knee-jerk response on till you hear me out!!! :smile: I just want to ask: Can anyone find anything at all that’s clearly iffy about what either of them say? I can’t. And they’re speaking about the PCR being the perfect tool for duping people en masse into TDS (PS: I remain personally uncommitted about what to think about this whole insane mess. No rabidly-certain opinions about it at all; still doing W&S! :slight_smile: ):

I just meant the Covid-19 deaths figures counted the usual way are on the rise. Even if they are fiddled, they haven’t changed the way they fiddle them! But it won’t be clear anything is really going on until it shows in the ONS weekly excess deaths data.

Great story, like reading a bit of Grapes of Wrath. I’m in awe of your get-up-and-go.
I’ll try to watch your video, good luck tomorrow

Evening RG

I’m currently in the middle of the video - I have to say that it’s extremely interesting. And unlike the presentation by Dr Reiner Fuellmich, it is really well referenced. :slight_smile:

I was going to write something up on the false positive rate, and perhaps I still will - it’s a complex but crucial subject. But to be honest, there isn’t a lot that I would add to the discussion by Andy Kaufman. Except to say that I think his stated accuracy of the PCR is way off. In the video he uses a number of 2.3% false positive rate. That’s pretty misleading on his part, as the paper he himself references to get that number, assumes an actul false positive rate of only 0.4% for Covid- that’s nearly 6 times smaller. A more recent study done by the ONS in conjunction with several universities estimates the number might be closer to 0.04%, which is nearly 60 times smaller. Regardless of what the true number is, many, many, many, reports have raised essentially the same concerns as those raised by Kaufman in the video - testing 10 million people per day will definitely give rise to a large number of false positive results, there’s no question about it. Additionally, and not mentioned much in the talk, is the possibility of a large number of false negatives. This to me is, if anything, even more worrying, as possibly infectious people get a clean bill of health and can wander around infecting people, all the while thinking that they are safe.

To my mind, more worrying than either the false positive/negative rate is the concept of the digital passport that they talk about. This is a seriously worrying possibility that has been whispered about for a while, but is clearly stated in the Moonshot doc. Couple this with the false positives, and false negatives, and what follows can really only be a shitshow.

Let’s also throw in the fact that police are

seven times more like to issue fines to black, Asian and minority ethnic people than white people.

(really being a rich, white, middle-aged person is the best strategy for dealing with Covid. Especially if you live near Great Barrington apparently)

The only consolation, in my mind, is that the whole moonshot project seems very unlikely to actually materialise. Partly due to the incredible cost of the project (it would cost as much as we currently spend on the NHS!), and the overt reliance on private corporations (how did that work out for the test and trace app?) and partly due to the fact that it is acknowledged that the technology needed to make this work doesn’t actually exist yet. This is a favourite tactic of BoJo - he was going to do the same thing at the border between Ireland and the six counties - unleash fantastical technology to create a digital border. That didn’t work out for him too well either. All this techno-wankery seems pretty unlikely to me… hopefully! I detect Dominic Cummings wet dream at play… But then I see his influenze (see what I did there?) everywhere these days. Maybe I’m a bit obsessed with the guy.

Where I differ with the two of them is towards the end, where they are suggesting (much like Dr Fuellmich) that no one is really getting sick, and that nothing out of the ordinary in terms of mortality happened this year. Again, referring to the title of this thread, it seems pretty clear to me that there has been a big jump in mortality this year. In many countries. We have eye witness accounts of what happened in London, in real time from people we actually know. If we want to say that nobody died, and the death certificates were all faked, then - at a minimum - I would need to see some real, credible evidence. I’ve not seen any yet…

Anyway - a really interesting piece. Let’s see how this moonshot nonsense develops. Hopefully it, together with the HS2 will collapse as the vapourware fantasies they are.

Thanks for posting!

Cheers
PP