Who could possibly have guessed that rejecting a Labour candidate who had a focus on preserving jobs, in favour of a Tory candidate who had a focus on lying to the public might have had an impact on jobs…?
I mean. Who. Could. Have. Thought. It?
(ditched the link to the Guardian - the anti-Corbyn scum that they are)
RED WALL AREAS FACING BREXIT JOB SHOCK EVEN UNDER A DEAL – REPORT
The “red wall” voters who helped deliver Boris Johnson’s
election victory will be disproportionately affected by Brexit even in
the event of a deal being agreed, storing up trouble for the prime
minister in 2024, according to a report.
With the new wave of Tory MPs in former Labour strongholds forced to
choose between supporting Johnson over his handling of coronavirus
lockdowns in the north and answering to their constituents facing job
losses, the report forecasts more trouble after Brexit.
It classes 35 of the constituencies as “vulnerable” to a Brexit
job shock because they rely so heavily on manufacturing.
As the gains made by the Conservative party in 2019 were so slender,
they could easily be reversed by job losses or the uncertainty to
livelihoods caused by Brexit, says the Manufacturing in the Marginals
report, compiled by a former Foreign Office official and high
commissioner.
In a fresh look at the consequences of Brexit, Paul McGrade weighed up
the number of votes that delivered the Tories’ majority against
manufacturing jobs, constituency by constituency. In some
constituencies the capacity for Brexit shock is greater because so
many key jobs are concentrated in one sector.
For example, in Bury North, where the Tories took the seat from Labour
by 105 votes, there are 4,500 people in manufacturing jobs, with many
in the chemical industry, a sector recently identified as at risk from
Brexit.
The chemicals company BASF, which has six sites in the UK, has said
Brexit will add a £1bn of costs to its business, even if there is a
deal, potentially threatening the future of some of its operations and
those in supply chains that use their chemicals in paint, coatings and
agriculture.
This is because it faces £50,000-£60,000 in additional costs to go
through a new compliance process for each of its 1,300 unique
chemicals, because the UK is coming out of the EU’s Reach regulation
system.
“Given how exposed the chemical industry is to trade disruption with
the EU, owing to its heavily regulated nature, this underlines how
economic harm to manufacturing could do significant electoral damage
in these Tory-held marginals,” says the report. “In Bury, where
the Conservatives won two seats on very slim majorities, and in
neighbouring Heywood and Middleton, the scale of employment in the
chemical industry is very high, amounting to 4,495 jobs.”
The challenges flow from Britain’s departure from the single market
and the customs union and will be faced irrespective of a deal being
struck.
“The risks from no deal are well known. But our report, for the
first time, maps where manufacturing jobs are at risk in every
constituency in Britain, deal or no deal. In much of the blue/red
wall, the number of jobs potentially at risk far outweighs the current
political majorities, which shows the scale of the post-Brexit
challenge for the Conservatives and for Labour if they want to hold or
win those seats at the next election,” said McGrade, who is Brexit
counsel at Lexington Communications.
[Manufacturing jobs in red wall seats]
If the ratio of factory jobs to Tory majority votes can be said to be
roughly 40:1 in Bury North using this “risk” calculation, the next
most vulnerable seat for the Conservatives is High Peak in Derbyshire.
Home to thermoplastics manufacturers, chemical suppliers and metal
castings companies, it has more than 6,000 manufacturing jobs,
compared with the Tory majority of 590 votes – a 10:1 ratio.
Also vulnerable to a Brexit manufacturing decline are Bolton North
East and Blyth Valley, where the number of factory jobs is nine times
greater than the Tory margin of victory.
Other areas deemed at risk include the West Midlands, which has 30,000
jobs in the motor industry across five constituencies. Solihull, home
to Jaguar Land Rover, will be particularly vulnerable, says the
report.
“In a lot of these constituencies, these are the best jobs around
and are highly skilled,” said McGrade.
The east has a huge reliance on the pharmaceutical industry, bringing
the number of jobs in manufacturing up to 242,000 across five
constituencies including Cambridge and Welwyn Hatfield.
The report says it recognises that manufacturing is not some sort of
“political kryptonite” for the Conservatives, but adds: “The
fact that these votes were won, in the words of the prime minister, on
the strength of ‘borrowed votes’, means they are vulnerable to
switching next time.”
