The right here now already happening Long Descent, that is. (Look around you, if in doubt…)
Note that, though I know he grasps very clearly the concept of the inherently unpredictable-in-detail nature of this crisis, or any probabilistic system, he’s confident enough about climate shift through human fossil-carbon releases (AGW) to foresee major shake-ups from that cause. Though I don’t think he’d attempt to quantify any of it too closely.
This thread complements matters discussed in the ‘Have humans ever been in control?’ thread; but I thought it needed its own headline:
PS: Though, speaking of the upcoming climate disruption, John says that he doesn’t expect it to be as bad as what happened during the Younger Dryas episode; which, as he points out, hom-sap survived handily.
Btw, Graham Hancock asserts that both the start and the end of the Younger Dryas period were triggered by big meteor strikes, both being debris from a disintegrated comet - which still visits the Earth’s orbit regularly…
As it happens, whilst checking something on Graham I happened - for just a moment - on a piece of shite from The Cess Pit (aka ‘Wikideceivia’), containing the typically tendentious phase “pseudoscientific theories”. Naturally, I didn’t need to read any further. Found a different, actually-honest source to check some facts…
Haven’t read the whole thing yet - saving it for this evening, but a quick comment on the above point.
Before we get too comfortable here, let’s consider that the younger dryas led to a massive extinction event of most animals over 40kg, huge climate devastation and a likely massive decline in the number of humans on the planet.
And that’s a massive decline when the total human population was topping out at a totally insane 1 million strong…
What’s the prognosis for a 3-5 degree temp rise alongside a hundred meter sea level rise on a human population of 8 billion? Over the next 100-150 years?
A lot of death. Even without looking at the details. Let’s not get complacent…
Humans in toto are not going to do anything effectual about heading them off before they get really bad; we just haven’t got what it takes to generate such worldwide, jesuit-like, mass self-discipline. There ARE practical, workable things that we can do, but these will never amount to a mass global movement, with billions cooperating in highly organised ways. Resolutions will come, but at Gaian pace, and through Gaian processes. These will be indifferent to any human efforts to presume to control them.
Detailed certainties about this future are - inherently - not available. General risk assessments, sure; exact details, absolutely not. Efforts to steer the situation will result in massive egg/face collisions.
Whatever the details are going to be, however bad or not so bad after all, the only available practically-effective response is personal, familial, and sub-Dunbar-Number group preparation; this has to include, as the only realistic option, psychological preparation: practice at Taoist acceptance and nimble harmonising cooperation with - whatever comes.
Agonising and rowing about it produces zero useful results; most people are just not going to listen; just ready your skills, your home, your group;
PS: Since - just as per The Limits To Growth’s adumbrations - the population-overshoot is - apparently - already moving into its falling-fertility phase (one of the things which always rocks up as overshoots build), on the strength of TLTG’s graphs our population will likely be well below 8 billion already in 50 years; and a lot lower again in 100. The slow, remorseless tightening down of the screws, rather than Hollyshite-style apocalypse scenarios, are likely to be our most common experience going through this period. Some apocalyptic catastrophes peppered around the planet, sure. But not the major vector of the change. For most of us most of the time, our experience is simply going to be one of protracted hard times; but survivable (I’m guessing! ).
Do we think that the present quietly-rewilding state of the Chernobyl region is apocalyptic…?
).