3 days ago:
1 day ago:
Fires rage after Lebanon’s Hezbollah rained rockets on northern Israel | AFP
Never being sure about the information/propaganda, I saw another version of the effect of “rained rockets”. There were lots of fires, but not a damaged building in sight. what this implies (for me at least), is that Hezbollah’s rocket capability may not be quite as it’s touted. Who benefits from their strength being overrated? In this world if mis, dis and psy op information, I like to believe none of what I hear and only half of what I see and hear.
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The first casualty of war is the truth!
I’d guess the first weapon is fear.
Yes, I’ve wondered the same thing, @PatB .
But then I notice that even the Houthis have hypersonic missiles now (Zircons if Gilbert Doctorow is to be believed). And Hezbollah had powerful anti ship missiles in 2006, so there’s a decent chance that they are just firing the bibi-guns (so to speak) at the moment and holding back on their serious weapons. I’ve even heard rumours that they have anti-aircraft weapons and are similarly holding back on those as an unpleasant surprise once Israel decides to invade.
It’s all very confusing and also worrying. The downside risk is almost limitless in this situation…
Zircon hypersonic missiles are Russian made. I’d be surprised if the Russians have given them to the Houthis. Some reports are saying that the Houthis have developed them themselves which doesn’t sound very likely either. Maybe supplied by Iran? In which case Hezbollah may also have them? Who is operating the launchers I wonder and who’s trained the operators?
The video below is purported to be from Yemeni Resistance. I’ve no idea how reliable it is.
The thing to remember here, first and foremost is that they are not a professional army. They are, as described, a terrorist organisation.
I’ve always judged by previous action, not words. So in no particular order we have the 2006 attack on an Israeli naval boat, shooting down military class drones, removing ISR capabilities and the utter destruction of Israeli armour (late 90s/early 00s) when they rolled over hidden trenches and were treated to high ex up the rear as a result.
The attack on Lebanon is to draw in the US. IDF cannot complete their task in Gaza. They are losing this war of attrition because $2k rockets are wiping out multi million dollar pieces of equipment. The Lebanese crew are vastly better equipped, America will have zero choices.
Yes I was surprised by Doctorow suggesting zircons too. Although that would be inline with Putin’s comments that Russia would supply weapons to their allies in response to the US supplying ATACMS to Ukraine, so who really knows.
He (as an avid Russian observer) is also quite sure that Iran would likely come to Hezbollah’s aid should it be required, and that Russia would come to Iran’s aid if it were to get that far. This seems to be the common sentiment on Russian TV at least.
Where we go from here I have no idea.
@LocalYokel I would rate Hezbollah at least as professional, well trained and organised as the IDF (and morally speaking there is no comparison). I just heard that the US has placed an amphibious attack vessel with 1100 marines and a handful of fighter planes in the vicinity. And they have a carrier strike group there too with more planes and missiles. Things are definitely heating up
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I’m not sure how many people know of this report, put together by Matt M. Matthews of the US Army Combined Arms Center at Fort Leavenworth, but it’s definitely worth a read.
Chapter 4 is quite illuminating. Here’s a snippet
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA477851
One key point was that the IDF were taken completely by surprise by the weapons and tactics they faced. I’m sure that’s a trick that Hezbollah will try to use again.
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Top notch analysis from Alastair Crooke!
Interviewed by Judge Nap:
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Larry Johnson with Nima. 23 minutes.
More unbelievable insanity from Nutty Yoo Hoo and the Psycho-Killers:
Senior IOF officers are apparently expressing doubts about the whole enterprise. This could be disinfo to entice USAF but I was rather hoping they might go for a coup d’etat…
I mean in Israel but the playlist seems to be NATO conference with Elensky as the fat lady, then coup Joe, then rapturous reception for Satanyahoo in DC, and then the Lebanon op, while Kamala cackles cluelessly.
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