Thanks ED,
Not sure what the ‘one solution’ to the failures of organic/small scale/fruit & veg growers would be. I suppose for farming more generally you’ve got the people pushing lab grown food (sic) and eating bugs, but I don’t get the impression those options are anywhere near the point where they can be rolled out at scale or make a profit. An engineer investigating the cost-competitivity of lab-grown meat substitutes concluded that:
the cell-culture process will be plagued by extreme, intractable technical challenges at food scale. […] it was “hard to find an angle that wasn’t a ludicrous dead end.”
Humbird likened the process of researching the report to encountering an impenetrable “Wall of No”—his term for the barriers in thermodynamics, cell metabolism, bioreactor design, ingredient costs, facility construction, and other factors that will need to be overcome before cultivated protein can be produced cheaply enough to displace traditional meat.
“And it’s a fractal no,” he told me. “You see the big no, but every big no is made up of a hundred little nos."
And it has been estimated that the bacterial protein favoured by George Monbiot in ‘Regenesis’ would take ‘the world’s entire current solar energy consumption more than twice over to produce sufficient protein globally’ - AND he appears to have overestimated the productivity per kWh of the process considerably. Not the 18kWh/kg figure he cites, more like 65kWh/kg.
Not to say that they won’t try, or there won’t be some new efficiencies brought to it over time, but it seems like a non-starter despite all the hype.
Anyway, thanks for the sympathies and best wishes. As to whether we could have done anything differently, not really - the weather and broader economic factors are out of our control. We could probably have put our prices up more than we did, and if we were more outgoing people or better at marketing could have got more regular customers. But that doesn’t solve the limitation on what you’re able to grow from the land, and without the ability to get multiple crops per bed during a season it means dramatically increasing the area of land under cultivation, meaning a field scale, tractor-based operation that isn’t really appropriate for the site. Then you have do go through and weed it all, build more infrastructure for storage, processing etc. Without an army of volunteers it would quickly become too much for the two of us to handle.
Iain Tolhurst, one of the organic bigwigs who has been doing it since the 70s, recently lamented the impossibility of getting started out in growing nowadays compared to when he started. He reckoned about 90% of new growers would fail within the first couple of years, and that the sector was rapidly becoming a mix of older, more established projects that were just scraping by and a rapid turnover of inexperienced newcomers which would fail to supply the next generation of viable growing businesses. Ie: a recipe for extinction in the mid- to long-term. Not pretty…
But as Aly says, the skills are there, and I’m sure I’ll find some way to put them to use in one context or another. They tried a Diggers revival in 2012 to coincide with the Magna Carta anniversary celebrations, which got evicted after a couple of years. Probably about time to give it another go though!
cheers,
I