Lots of clear thinking, and nice to listen to people who have a memory greater than a goldfish.
Ultimately worrying, though, as none of the above can see any way out of this catastrophe…
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The US is angling to have the conflict frozen, until their ballot stuffing ops are concluded late 2024, and then probably have another crack. With some shiny new toys and trained operators (or well-paid retired USAF personnel…)
Since Russia clearly cannot countenance this the conclusion has to be a partitioned Ukraine of some kind, not a NATO member, and ongoing tensions or conflict of one kind or another. This sounds rather like Israel’s situation.
The alternative is too ghastly to contemplate.
The EU may survive, and Ukraine might even join it, but that will achieve nowt. NATO members will be strong-armed into lend-lease of weaponry to replace the stuff they’ve sent to Ukr for scrapping.
And lots of other moving parts, which it would be foolhardy to guess about.
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There are other alternatives.
This relies on the EU remaining solid. Not seeing this on many fronts.
Easy one is Orban. He’s talking a lot of sense. But moving on, you have Germany committing suicide financially, and the Poles rely on German money for their free cash. I don’t see Germany paying for Polish expansion somehow. Sooner or later thats going to fail.
Then there’s France. Current seeing the suppliers forget their place. They will not carry the slack of Germany.
Winter is going to affect the rest. They made it through the last mild one. Maybe this one will be too? Some say we’re going to get a cold one. We shall see.
There’s also the money aspect. West is broke. Putin says they’ve made twice what they had robbed from them by the west since the event, and Asia is going to be great for them.
Then there’s that date…2030.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
Special attention is paid to the desire of the SCO member states to make efforts to achieve the goals outlined in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
G20 (That’s Russia, others and the west) have also announced digital ID and money in lockstep.
Oh, and Wallace let it slip that we’re due to go to war with China 2030 too. It’s like that damn date in Back to the Future.
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Great points LY. The humiliation of France in the Sahel cannot simply cannot be an accident of timing. (How do I say “Take a bow Sergei Lavrov” without saying it…?)
This SubStack is always worth a look and incorporates thoughts from the Mearsheimer et al round-table as well as more recent developments. The Daily Telegraph stuff is wincingly off-message. The general tenor, that Russia is knocking it out of the park, repeatedly and with apparent ease, is difficult to dispute. And I’m certainly not inclined to want to do so.
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Good points LY.
I think you’re right that winter might focus a few minds. Another round of missile attacks by Russia on the power infrastructure of Ukraine could well cause another massive influx of refugees into Europe. The whole idea of a frozen conflict, or a ceasefire needs Russian agreement… and it’s far from obvious why they would agree. According to Mercouris, there have been several behind the scenes attempts by the US to get Russia too agree some kind of ceasefire with no success. Partly, as discussed by the folk in the video above, because no one on the US/EU side sees Russian interests as legitimate.
The situation with France and West Africa is interesting. It’s hard to get a real beat on what’s actually going on. It’s a weird coincidence (or is it?) that so many of the coup leaders are alumni from the very same US run military training academy. Is this a continuation of the de-industrialisation of Europe by the Americans? First nordstream, now French uranium, minerals.
Clearly a lot going on…
Thanks for the link @KarenEliot . Great article. The telegraph is second only to the guardians Simon Tisdall in sheer frothing at the mouth war mongering insanity.
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Isn’t it just…I’d be inclined to blame America. At least for starting the charade.
I suspect that the various AFRICOM trained officers may have had other ideas. Can’t prove this yet, but as usual (for me) comedy provides some good clues (Old Top Gear specials are good at destroying narrative (EG Three wise men destroys Syria myth of cowed people)). There is a meme video of Ibrahim Traore where he goes around fist bumping instead of shaking hands. Everyone gets the first bump. Except one man, VVP. It speaks loudly.
Then there is this video that surfaced yesterday
Putin also said during his huge conversation that the US is pulling British Intelligence along for the ride.
Putin: I admit that the British intelligence services are acting at the behest of the United States;
Also,
Putin on military operations: How can we stop the military action when the other side is launching a counteroffensive? We are not Trotskyists - “the movement is everything, the final goal is nothing”. It’s a bad theory;
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The plot thickens like gravy…
“The EU has failed to strengthen democracy in the Sahel” said the EU foreign affairs chief
The head of EU diplomacy Josep Borrell admitted on Tuesday that despite millions of euros spent in the Sahel, Europeans had failed to strengthen democracy in this region.
“Over the past ten years, the European Union has spent 600 million euros on civilian and military missions in the Sahel, trained some 30,000 members of the security forces in Mali and Niger, and 18,000 military personnel,” said Borrell.
“This did not serve to consolidate armed forces which support the democratic government”, but rather armed forces “which overthrow them”, he added.
Borrell, however, defended the actions of EU in the Sahel, denouncing in passing Russian disinformation in this part of Africa.
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Yep, Josep “Europe is a garden and the rest of the world is a jungle” Borrell is someone who really cares about democracy in Africa. A shame he didn’t mention their crowning glory - murdering Ghadaffi and destroying one of the most prosperous countries in the region.
I don’t have much time for Meloni in Italy, but in this instance I have to say that I think she’s right.
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Meloni.
Made the right noises when she first appeared on my radar, but I’ve learned not to trust. Since taking power she’s changed direction on more than one subject.
Then there’s this;
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She really has. Thanks for alerting me to the Lord Bebo channel, subbed straight away.