It’s an interesting article but highly improbable in some of the particulars, as the author concedes towards the end.
The disintegration of the EU was not covered at all, though national boundaries within Europe are sketched briefly. To me this seems every bit as likely as some of the scenarios outlined, and a great deal more likely than a few of them. New Zealand split in two? North and South Korea reunited?
Countries are “imagined communities” as Benedict Anderson (IIRC) put it. The vision that Batiushka lays out is certainly a work of quite some imagination, and in parts I had to pinch myself to shake the delusion that I was reading about the Bantustans (“tribal homelands” as I recall Botha and others terming them) set up by South Africa.
These were utterly fake nations set up to confer spurious voting rights and citizenship for the majority population but not as citizens/voters in SA, oh no. That was for settlers. Everyone else was to be assigned citizenship of weird and wonderful places called Transkei, Bophuthatswana (Sun City), Ciskei, etc. In many cases the Transkeians, Ciskeians, Vendans, etc, had never even set foot in their “homeland”.
This was a ruse to prop up the pretence that South Africa was founded by Boers, and ok some Brits, Huguenots blah blah blah. While the Vorsters, Malans, Bothas and sundry other Broederbonders were the architects, they took their inspiration from Britain, with its long history of carving out “nations” on just about every continent.
But as I said, an interesting piece, and the thrust of it is accurate I think: old certainties are being swept away. Nothing of course is ever certain/permanent.