Interesting that they don’t use 2020 for calculating expected deaths. Maybe a wee project there, if @PontiusPrimate fancies it 
Hi ED
Lots to think about there again, and I don’t have much time to put together a reply again right now. I’ll get back to you when I can. But one thing I don’t understand is, even if you’re correct about covid not being able to explain all the deaths in the last wave, I still don’t see how it can be vaccines as the trend in mortality is downwards as vaccine uptake trends upwards. It seems to be negatively correlated and therefore a poor explanatory variable.
Maybe I’ve missed something. Anyway, let me think more carefully about your points above and see what thoughts bubble up.
Cheers
PP
Hi @KarenEliot , this point jumped out at me from the CMI report summary:
" There is a reliance on the data published by third parties, particularly the ONS data which is described as “provisional”."
Do we trust these institutions in the light of all the definitions that keep changing worldwide on covid stats, and particularly on the dearth of reliable data on jab adverse event stats? Do we know if there have been any key changes in the personnel in these places over the last 2 years?
cheers
PS I noticed this article which may appeal 
1 Like
If I remember correctly they were using a rolling average of previous years until some time in 2020 and then for some reason 
froze the rolling average to some point in 2019. I didn’t fully grasp the nuance but likelihood is there was some leaning on