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'CDC admits at least 94% of deaths from Covid19 were WRONG'

Hi @PontiusPrimate , I’ve been watching this thread with interest and learning a lot so thanks to you and @Evvy_dense. One thing I can’t get my head around which you might have insight on is the difference between the PHE numbers produced daily and the ONS weekly numbers:

Deaths within 28 days of positive test
Daily 22 — Abstract information: Daily number of deaths within 28 days of first positive test, reported on Wednesday, 21 April 2021

Total 127,327 — Abstract information: Total number of deaths within 28 days of first positive test, reported up to Wednesday, 21 April 2021.

Deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate

Weekly 422 — Abstract information: Weekly number of deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned as a cause on the death certificate, registered during the week ending Friday, 9 April 2021.

Total 150,841

If we look at the PHE daily numbers totalling 127,327 these are totally test related deaths where death certificate information is completely absent from the stats but they are less by over 23,000 than the ONS numbers totalling 150,841 to 9th April which are compiled weekly using death certificate information. This implies that rather than a false positive from testing there is a false negative by a substantial margin.??

cheers

PS section 4 of this publication could be relevant:

Hi again

I explained that I was defending Henele’s legal view against your accusations of bogusness. I think I’ve done that. From an initial impression that their estimates for the overcounting may have been wild claims (they did seem a bit high), all the way down to getting hold of the calculation and the nitty-gritties of death certificate rules and guidance. It’s clear there is a process there and it looks like it corresponds to the pre-covid, international counting system. If it is correctly applied then it is not bogus.

That doesn’t mean I have to agree with his/their numbers, or that the old rules were good (which I’ll get on to). Nevertheless I expect the numbers he provides reflect the outcome you would get if the old rules were applied to Covid. I say they are therefore likely to be valid calculations.
There is then the additional question of whether, if correct numerically, this set of rules is a good way to deal with covid.

So what your argument amounts to is not that it’s bogus, but that it’s bonkers - because (you think) the rules on which they are based are bonkers, or were for 17 years internationally?

Well that’s a matter of opinion, as I said already. To me it’s a bit ridiculous to dismiss a system as ‘bogus’ on the basis of a claim such as that ‘there is no one defending it’, when the whole world used it for seventeen years, and which hadn’t formally been changed.
When you used the word ‘bogus’ initially, I thought it was because it seemed the overestimate couldn’t be true.

Regarding the counting methods, your first 3 numbered points you say I am defending are a little caricature of Henele. There are five names on the legal document. You say Henele believes that the death toll is massively inflated - but then again you believe his is massively deflated, so cuts no ice. Your second point/image of Henele ‘consistently doing his best to try and scrubb out deaths of people with co-morbidities from the covid record’ also works both ways - or the CDC doing their best to add them? File that under rhetoric.
And “Henele’s legal case is entirely based on the CDC not waiting for a minimum of 2 months and getting the public/congressional discussions going.”
It wasn’t based on them not waiting, but rather doing it on their own with no consultation to get the numbers up. Do you really think the delay was the reason the CDC didn’t wait? They could have organised additional interim counts of covid deaths and got the same numbers, trouble is the old ones would have also been in view.

The rules themselves.

“I’ve yet to see anyone explain why it’s right to exclude people from the death toll who have high blood pressure, for example.”
You say ‘the death toll’ - the covid death toll you mean? Well if covid played a major role (according to treating doctors or PMs) it would have been counted. And if it didn’t, it wouldn’t be counted as a covid death. It would still be counted as a death from high blood pressure, if that was the leading cause.

That’s a concrete enough example. If diseases that play a minor role are counted as if they were the main cause of death then it will - obviously - inflate the death toll for these diseases.
As I’ve suggested, the problem may be that you take the massive covid death toll as a given, then anything that reduces it is going to seem wrong to you.

“and yet, … you are unable to come up with a single example. Not one single example…”
“It’s a bit of a shame…”
" If you ever do get round to thinking of such an example…"

I’m a bit disappointed to see this kind of thing after two days of discussion PP - as if we don’t both know that we’re talking about deaths where covid had little or no role.

“The simple question that is unanswered here is how does changing the order in which the cause of death is recorded inflate the numbers? I mean… how?”

The order? Not following - but I already noted how counting a disease that had a minor or no role would inflate numbers, in an obvious way.

Your EDIT. The system already catered for multiple diseases. I don’t see how they would lose track of covid by not counting it as an underlying cause of death when it it’s not. Physicians decided but now they are told to change their judgement just when it’s covid.
And they aren’t ‘tracking both Covid and the co-morbidities accurately’ - if they were, surely Henele wouldn’t have a problem?

PP I think the discussion has taken a bit of a downward turn and I think what I’ve written represents my view as concisely as I can so I might not comment further. I only posted originally in this thread to be helpful, but came in when it was shot down.
Sorry if I played a part in it becoming bickery but at least we got where Henele and co are coming from!

Cheers
Evvy

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Thanks for your clarification here @Evvy_dense, and for the example you include - really helpful. I know that we’re getting to the end of this particular discussion (beyond the end maybe!) So I’ll keep this as to the point as possible.

I think my points summarising Henele’s position are pretty accurate. I’ll let anyone else who’s interested (probably no one, to be honest!) make up their own mind.

(Incidentally, you’re mixing my “bogus” with my “bonkers” again. I did explain that pretty clearly, I thought!)

I 100% think that. They would have been unable to track covid properly for at least 2-3 months during the early phase with the old system.

Well. If the system was supposed to record covid in the second box as Henele seems to be strongly suggesting, it wouldn’t have been counted. That covid case would be effectively buried in the record keeping. That’s the point that I made in the last post above. They would have recorded hypertension, but not covid. That doesn’t seem right… By doing it this way round they can easily keep track of both.

Well, this is exactly why I was hoping you would come up with an example - thanks!

So the main concern here (in this example) is that a doctor is forced (by the new rule) to write down a disease that they know wasn’t responsible for the cause of death, as if it were the cause of death, whilst downplaying what they think is real cause of death?

Would you agree that this example highlights the main cause for concern, or have I fluffed it?

If so the question is, where are the frontline doctors saying that they are being forced to do this? Why does Pierre Kory not come back to Congress and say this? Why did he, in fact, say pretty much the opposite? How about the renegade group of frontline physicians who got into all kinds of trouble for trying to promote HCQ? Why don’t they come out and say “for every patient who really died of covid, I’m forced to add x-numbers who really died of something else?”

Or the brave doctors who are taking a public stance against the vaccines?

See, this, would be real actual evidence that the stats are being manipulated. Evidence I would happily take seriously and pay attention to. And moreover, is what I would expect to see if the CDC rules were forcing doctors to basically lie on the death certs. There are plenty of actual frontline groups who would happily come forward and blow the whistle on this. Where are they?

Another problem with the scenario in the example is that I would expect to see the CFR in the US look very different to the CFR in other countries if the US were forcing doctors to lie on the death certificate. Covid would be an apparently much more fatal disease in the US than in Europe, say, or Brazil. In fact Henele claims this to be the case in the transcript.

But it’s not. It’s almost exactly the same.

So we have no group of frontline doctors complaining that they are forced to lie, and no difference in the CFR between the US and other badly hit countries.

So how frequently, then, can your example truly be occurring? How often can doctors be forced to lie on the death cert without (a) causing outrage and whistle-blowing, or (b) affecting the CFR stats?

At most that can only be a small percentage 0-10% maybe? A point that I’ve willingly conceded at least three or four times in the above back and forth.

Can it be 16 fraudulent deaths for each actual death - the subject of Rippons original title and this entire thread? That seems literally impossible to me. Which is more or less what I said in my very first response in this entire thread!

I probably should have just left it there and not subjected the board to my endless posts…!

Anyway. I think I will leave it there. I thank you for the example and for all your patience with me over this long thread. I think your example clearly shows that Henele’s claim of massive fraud cannot possibly be right.

Cheers bwana.

PP

Hi @CJ1

thanks for that. Actually it’s nice to know that someone was reading through our conversation here. Cheers!

I don’t know the answer to your question - I’ll dig in a bit later when I have a mo. But my first guess would be that PHE counts deaths in England only, maybe? ONS is national.

That’s just a guess though.

Cheers
PP

Just checked the site

  • I did have the UK numbers,
    the England numbers are also similar:
    Deaths within 28 days of positive test

Daily 20— Abstract information: Daily number of deaths within 28 days of first positive test, reported on Wednesday, 21 April 2021.
Total 112,005 — Abstract information: Total number of deaths within 28 days of first positive test, reported up to Wednesday, 21 April 2021.

Deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate

Weekly 360— Abstract information: Weekly number of deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned as a cause on the death certificate, registered during the week ending Friday, 9 April 2021.
Total 129,048

cheers

1 Like

Hi PP.

Just to repeat, I said what was wrong with your summary of Henele’s position, and also pointed out that I didn’t have to support it all to defend it against your ridicule.
I didn’t mix up bogus and bonkers, Scouts honour :slight_smile: I know what you meant, but I said your arguments didn’t relate to justifying the claim of ‘bogus’ - lawyers justifying their case based on 17 years of operation, data and the lack of lawful procedure, and recalculating the figures can’t be bogus. The onus was on you to show ‘bogus’, not on me to show Henele’s case was correct.

OTOH your other argument was that the existing way of counting was ‘bonkers’ because it didn’t give enough priority to Covid - that’s at least valid as a viewpoint. So while you indicated what you meant to claim, nothing justified the allegation of bogus.
(I could leave it there but you raise other stuff so I’ll respond to these)

It doesn’t follow from country CFR comparisons (which are meaningless if you don’t know the countries’ testing policy - eg with its farcical testing, the UK’s CFR ran at 20% for a long time last year, now it’s 3%.),

or from whereaboutery: (“Where are the frontline doctors saying…?”, But, funny you should say that - well in America they are in America: https://www.americasfrontlinedocs.com/.

Dr (Senator) Scott Jensen is one: " “I sort of got myself in hot water way back in April when I made the comment that I was, as a physician, being encouraged to do death certificates differently with COVID-19 than with other disease entities,” Jensen said. https://www.westernjournal.com/mn-senator-physician-blows-whistle-bizarre-non-covid-types-deaths-blamed-covid/)

or from anything else rhetorical or hand wavy like brave doctors and vaccines.

Scott Jensen reanalysed the figures and came up with a 40% exaggeration. More than your 0-10% but less than Helele’s 90+%.

But also - we don’t know what other overcounting there was. Any over-counting wouldn’t necessarily all be coming all from errors in death certificates, but may be from the way the information gathered is tallied up by the programs that add up the diseases codes. This table shows how it all works:

In the 255,000 ‘covid deaths’ there are 100,000 'influenza and pneumonia’s. Covid AND influenza? Needs sorting out what is going on there, surely? A court seems a good idea to me!

Hospitals counting covid deaths due to financial encouragement? That was an issue early on and these were about early data.

You say

“… They would have been unable to track covid properly for at least 2-3 months during the early phase with the old system.”

As I’ve said, I think that’s the root of our disagreement. Your view is that Covid cases have to be counted as whole covid deaths - even when covid played a minor role. I say that automatically inflates the deaths.

You haven’t said why Covid should have been special - except in terms like ‘tidal wave’ and ‘pandemic’ - which assume this premise to begin with. A circular argument is not an argument - covid wasn’t either of these things a month earlier:

“Regardless of a pandemic’s more technical definition, the WHO official said COVID-19, the disease caused by a new strain of coronavirus, is still not considered a pandemic.”

I enjoyed most of the discussion - it’s the slack that’s crept in to the discussion that made me want to bring it to a close. Maybe I provoked that - but as we were essentially critiquing a court case (almost, experts as we are :slight_smile: :slight_smile: ), it simply can’t be done with handwaves and rhetoric, and circular arguments. These are fun in the pub!

Cheers

Evvy

Thanks ED

Yeah, I think we went in to that pretty deep. At least I think we can agree that the original claims of 94% are false. That’s been my primary contention all along.

I’m sorry you feel that my arguments were “slack” and “bendy”, and ultimately circular. Didn’t feel that way to me as I was making them. I should probably go and work on my debating style!

As for the rest, as I’ve said many times, I’ll wait for some actual proof that doctors are being forced to lie before making up my mind. I’ll check out the report by Jensen. Otherwise it’s all conjecture.

In the meantime I’m happy to leave it there. I’m not sure if Henele’s legal case is going to go anywhere, but I’ll be curious if it does. It’ll be interesting if a court agrees that waiting 2 or more months at the beginning of a pandemic before working out your recording process is a good idea. Stranger things than that have happened I guess!

Cheers
PP

Thanks PP.

I’m not sure how much slack there is in my debating style either - I’ve been saying the last year that the worst nightmare of the non-Trump, middle, professional US was not hundreds of thousands of covid deaths but another Trump victory. It seems clear to me- but to what extent I might base this on whatever I am arguing being true I don’t know! Haven’t been asked for the data yet… :slight_smile:

Not sure why you say this, but I didn’t agree the 94% claim was false - that would need access to the data. I expect the overcount is upwards of 40% and that’s important, especially when you consider the purpose - it wasn’t so they could justify treating covid!

" It’ll be interesting if a court agrees that waiting 2 or more months at the beginning of a pandemic before working out your recording process is a good idea "

Pandemic or not, I don’t know what the legitimate need was to change the counting method. There was a flu pandemic in 2009 which was a new strain and if the need had arisen then it could have been changed then.

As is clear from the link I gave last time (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health_policy/covid19-comorbidity-expanded-12092020-508.pdf), under the old counting system diseases that are involved in deaths are still counted by the counting programs. Doctors decided the role played by health conditions in each case - not bureaucrats. If it was felt that covid was causing more deaths, then the excess deaths plus the covid totals would still have revealed any covid-emergency that there was. The only clear purpose of the changes was to count the maximum conceivable number of ‘covid deaths’, thereby pushing the profile of covid to the hilt.

It was a feature of the pandemic planning event 201 that the idea of flooding the media with pandemic information was proposed and agreed on. The change to the counting greatly helped with that ‘flooding’.

But yeah we’ll need to wait and see. I don’t have faith the courts will deal such a blow to the establishment but we’ll see.

Thanks for the exchange.

Evvy